Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints33
- Desmond BaneAssists9
- Moritz WagnerRebounds9
Bucks- Bobby PortisPoints18
- Cam ThomasAssists6
- Bobby PortisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–91
- Q43.9Jett Howard lost ball turnover (Pete Nance steals)130–91
- Q425.0Goga Bitadze defensive rebound130–91
- Q427.8AJ Green misses 23-foot three point jumper130–91
- Q433.0Andre Jackson Jr. offensive rebound130–91
- Q436.2AJ Green misses 29-foot three point jumper130–91
- Q446.6Jett Howard makes free throw 2 of 2130–91
- Q446.6Jett Howard makes free throw 1 of 2129–91
- Q446.6Pete Nance personal foul128–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:00Tristan da Silva makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 5 – 0 MIL · ORL 70% → 75% +5ORL 70% → 75%+5 pts
- Q17:59Myles Turner makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jericho Sims assists)ORL 7 – 5 MIL · MIL 25% → 30% +5MIL 25% → 30%+5 pts
- Q12:57Jevon Carter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)ORL 17 – 9 MIL · ORL 75% → 80% +5ORL 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q211:19Noah Penda makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 28 – 18 MIL · ORL 78% → 83% +5ORL 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q235.2Paolo Banchero makes 22-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 64 – 53 MIL · ORL 81% → 86% +5ORL 81% → 86%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -6.5
- ML ORL -225 / MIL +185
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -4.5
- ORL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- ORL: Elo 67.1%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- ORL -197
- MIL +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 111.5 – 105.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIL and ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +14 | −78 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +124 Elo | ORL 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 67.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 111.428th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 115.516th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −4.122nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 111.522nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 115.724th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.4 | Pace | 99.425th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 16th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 15–1619th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 17th of 301504 | Elo rating | 143622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–35 | 28–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–24 | 8–16 |
| Underdog | 10–11 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 31–31 | 26–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 4–6 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Feb 11MIL 116 @ ORL 108Picked ORL 80%Miss
- Feb 9MIL 99 @ ORL 118Picked ORL 77%Hit
- Mar 8ORL 111 @ MIL 109Picked MIL 71%Miss
- Jan 15ORL 93 @ MIL 122Picked MIL 69%Hit
- Jan 10MIL 109 @ ORL 106Picked MIL 67%Hit
- Dec 10ORL 109 @ MIL 114Picked MIL 75%Hit
- Apr 14MIL 88 @ ORL 113Picked ORL 66%Hit
- Apr 10ORL 99 @ MIL 117Picked ORL 61%Miss