Orlando Magic at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Desmond BanePoints30
- Desmond BaneAssists4
- Paolo BancheroRebounds15
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints34
- Bones HylandAssists4
- Julius RandleRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–92
- Q415.5Goga Bitadze makes driving layup (Jamal Cain assists)119–92
- Q435.3Noah Penda defensive rebound117–92
- Q437.5Julian Phillips misses 9-foot fade away jump shot117–92
- Q452.6Jevon Carter out of bounds bad pass turnover117–92
- Q41:06Magic defensive team rebound117–92
- Q41:08Julian Phillips misses 23-foot three point jumper117–92
- Q41:21Jett Howard makes 4-foot two point shot (Jevon Carter assists)117–92
- Q41:23Magic offensive team rebound115–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:05Naz Reid makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bones Hyland assists)ORL 34 – 38 MIN · MIN 69% → 75% +6MIN 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q213.3Jalen Suggs makes 23-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)ORL 60 – 50 MIN · ORL 56% → 64% +8ORL 56% → 64%+8 pts
- Q39:48Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jaden McDaniels assists)ORL 64 – 57 MIN · MIN 33% → 42% +9MIN 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q31:57Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 85 – 72 MIN · MIN 10% → 16% +6MIN 10% → 16%+6 pts
- Q31:15Jevon Carter makes 24-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 88 – 74 MIN · ORL 79% → 87% +7ORL 79% → 87%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -6.5
- ML ORL +215 / MIN -265
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 69.9%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -229
- ORL +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 109.0 – 115.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +12 | ORL: Usual rotation · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +147 Elo | MIN 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 72.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 119.04th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 114.413th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +4.77th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 115.59th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 111.08th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.4 | Pace | 102.610th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 22–117th of 30 |
| 9th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 148828th of 30 |
| 19th of 301472 | Elo rating | 157310th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–35 | 27–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–24 | 20–31 |
| Underdog | 9–11 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 31–30 | 30–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 1–3 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.