Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints27
- Collin GillespieAssists9
- Collin GillespieRebounds9
Bucks- Kyle KuzmaPoints33
- Ryan RollinsAssists7
- Ousmane DiengRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–114
- Q40.9shot clock turnover129–114
- Q424.9Pete Nance enters the game for Giannis Antetokounmpo129–114
- Q424.9shot clock turnover129–114
- Q446.8Oso Ighodaro defensive rebound129–114
- Q450.4Ryan Rollins misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot129–114
- Q41:00Oso Ighodaro makes running layup (Collin Gillespie assists)129–114
- Q41:01Collin Gillespie defensive rebound127–114
- Q41:04Ousmane Dieng misses 6-foot running jump shot127–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:09Jordan Goodwin makes 22-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 89 – 91 MIL · PHX 34% → 45% +11PHX 34% → 45%+11 pts
- Q32:34Royce O'Neale makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 92 – 93 MIL · PHX 37% → 49% +11PHX 37% → 49%+11 pts
- Q32:07Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotPHX 95 – 93 MIL · PHX 48% → 60% +11PHX 48% → 60%+11 pts
- Q30.5Royce O'Neale makes 48-foot three pointer (Jordan Goodwin assists)PHX 100 – 97 MIL · PHX 52% → 64% +12PHX 52% → 64%+12 pts
- Q411:37Collin Gillespie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Haywood Highsmith assists)PHX 103 – 97 MIL · PHX 64% → 75% +11PHX 64% → 75%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -2.5
- ML PHX -130 / MIL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2
- PHX 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- PHX: Elo 58.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHX -119
- MIL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 111.0 – 108.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +5 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +63 Elo | PHX 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 52.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 111.128th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 115.816th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −4.724th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 111.223rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 115.924th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.2 | Pace | 99.425th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 14th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 15–1721st of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 14th of 301533 | Elo rating | 142021st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–26 | 28–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–12 | 8–16 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders | 26–38 | 27–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–2 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.