Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints22
- LaMelo BallAssists6
- Brandon MillerRebounds9
Suns- Devin BookerPoints30
- Devin BookerAssists10
- Khaman MaluachRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–111
- Q49.6Khaman Maluach defensive rebound99–111
- Q412.4Tre Mann misses 17-foot step back jumpshot99–111
- Q419.6Hornets offensive team rebound99–111
- Q420.1Pat Connaughton misses driving layup99–111
- Q436.0Amir Coffey enters the game for Oso Ighodaro99–111
- Q436.0Khaman Maluach enters the game for Devin Booker99–111
- Q436.0Ryan Dunn enters the game for Royce O'Neale99–111
- Q436.0Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for Miles Bridges99–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:09Coby White makes 27-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 70 – 76 PHX · CHA 28% → 37% +10CHA 28% → 37%+10 pts
- Q32:31LaMelo Ball makes 28-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHA 75 – 76 PHX · CHA 43% → 54% +11CHA 43% → 54%+11 pts
- Q49:04Rasheer Fleming makes 25-foot three point jumper (Haywood Highsmith assists)CHA 81 – 86 PHX · PHX 53% → 67% +14PHX 53% → 67%+14 pts
- Q48:05Haywood Highsmith makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Jalen Green assists)CHA 83 – 88 PHX · PHX 59% → 69% +9PHX 59% → 69%+9 pts
- Q46:42Collin Gillespie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)CHA 85 – 95 PHX · PHX 80% → 90% +10PHX 80% → 90%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -4.5
- ML CHA -205 / PHX +170
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -4.5
- CHA 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- CHA: Elo 67.2%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CHA -181
- PHX +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 111.5 – 107.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +68 | −25 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +125 Elo | CHA 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 61.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 112.126th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 111.26th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.6 | Margin | +0.915th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 112.319th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 111.311th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.7 | Pace | 99.326th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 11th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 21–1312th of 30 |
| 29th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15085th of 30 |
| 8th of 301583 | Elo rating | 151617th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–23 | 37–26 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–7 | 19–12 |
| Underdog | 27–16 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 25–39 | 26–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–3 PHX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.