New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints22
- Dejounte MurrayAssists5
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds10
Suns- Devin BookerPoints32
- Grayson AllenAssists8
- Oso IghodaroRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–118
- Q45.3Herbert Jones makes driving dunk (Zion Williamson assists)116–118
- Q47.8Pelicans Full timeout114–118
- Q47.8Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2114–118
- Q47.8Ryan Dunn enters the game for Jalen Green114–117
- Q47.8Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2114–117
- Q47.8Saddiq Bey personal take foul114–116
- Q48.6Dejounte Murray enters the game for Yves Missi114–116
- Q48.6Jalen Green enters the game for Haywood Highsmith114–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:20Saddiq Bey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 73 – 75 PHX · NO 27% → 37% +9NO 27% → 37%+9 pts
- Q34:22Rasheer Fleming makes 26-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)NO 73 – 78 PHX · PHX 63% → 73% +10PHX 63% → 73%+10 pts
- Q446.1Dejounte Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)NO 111 – 114 PHX · NO <1% → 10% +10NO <1% → 10%+10 pts
- Q411.7Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2NO 113 – 114 PHX · NO 5% → 20% +15NO 5% → 20%+15 pts
- Q49.8Grayson Allen makes free throw 1 of 2NO 113 – 115 PHX · PHX 82% → 96% +15PHX 82% → 96%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -3.5
- ML NO +145 / PHX -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -4.5
- PHX 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- PHX: Elo 67.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- PHX -156
- NO +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 112.5 – 116.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1388 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | PHX and NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +31 | −12 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +130 Elo | PHX 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 63.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 112.026th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 111.16th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.1 | Margin | +0.914th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 112.120th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 111.210th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.4 | Pace | 99.326th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–23 | Road vs home | 20–1311th of 30 |
| 7th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15095th of 30 |
| 24th of 301388 | Elo rating | 151316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–30 | 37–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–3 | 19–11 |
| Underdog | 25–27 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 33–31 | 25–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–6 PHX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Dec 27PHX 123 @ NO 114Picked PHX 62%Hit
- Dec 26PHX 115 @ NO 108Picked PHX 64%Hit
- Nov 10NO 98 @ PHX 121Picked PHX 75%Hit
- Feb 28NO 108 @ PHX 125Picked PHX 75%Hit
- Feb 27NO 124 @ PHX 116Picked PHX 70%Miss
- Dec 5PHX 124 @ NO 126Picked PHX 53%Miss
- Apr 7NO 113 @ PHX 105Picked PHX 62%Miss
- Apr 1PHX 124 @ NO 111Picked NO 57%Miss