New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints24
- Dejounte MurrayAssists8
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds8
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints27
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Luka DoncicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–110
- Q40.5shot clock turnover101–110
- Q421.0Luka Doncic defensive rebound101–110
- Q424.7Marcus Smart blocks Trey Murphy III 's 7-foot driving floating jump shot101–110
- Q429.6Austin Reaves steps out of bounds turnover101–110
- Q429.6Austin Reaves defensive rebound101–110
- Q429.6Dejounte Murray misses 28-foot three point jumper101–110
- Q442.8Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2101–110
- Q442.8Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2101–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:39Saddiq Bey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)NO 81 – 79 LAL · NO 34% → 47% +13NO 34% → 47%+13 pts
- Q49:53Dejounte Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derik Queen assists)NO 84 – 81 LAL · NO 39% → 52% +14NO 39% → 52%+14 pts
- Q46:43Austin Reaves makes 24-foot running jump shot (LeBron James assists)NO 94 – 91 LAL · LAL 27% → 43% +15LAL 27% → 43%+15 pts
- Q45:04Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)NO 94 – 96 LAL · LAL 52% → 70% +18LAL 52% → 70%+18 pts
- Q42:31Zion Williamson makes 2-foot two point shot (Dejounte Murray assists)NO 98 – 100 LAL · NO 15% → 28% +13NO 15% → 28%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -7.5
- ML NO +260 / LAL -325
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -7
- LAL 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- LAL: Elo 74.8%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- LAL -275
- NO +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 117.5 – 125.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1385 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +31 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +189 Elo | LAL 74.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 72.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 72.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 115.913th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 115.515th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.3 | Margin | +0.515th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 115.77th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 115.222nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.2 | Pace | 100.221st of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 24th of 308–22 | Road vs home | 17–1213th of 30 |
| 9th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 24th of 301385 | Elo rating | 153012th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–29 | 32–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–3 | 24–13 |
| Underdog | 25–26 | 8–15 |
| Overs–unders | 32–30 | 32–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–9 LAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Jan 6LAL 111 @ NO 103Picked LAL 66%Hit
- Nov 30NO 121 @ LAL 133Picked LAL 89%Hit
- Nov 14LAL 118 @ NO 104Picked LAL 79%Hit
- Apr 4NO 108 @ LAL 124Picked LAL 90%Hit
- Mar 4NO 115 @ LAL 136Picked LAL 73%Hit
- Nov 16LAL 104 @ NO 99Picked LAL 74%Hit
- Apr 14LAL 124 @ NO 108Picked LAL 52%Hit
- Feb 9NO 122 @ LAL 139Picked NO 54%Miss