Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Nique CliffordPoints26
- DeMar DeRozanAssists8
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds13
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints28
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Jake LaRaviaRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–128
- Q46.9Devin Carter makes running layup (Killian Hayes assists)104–128
- Q410.8Killian Hayes defensive rebound102–128
- Q414.1Jake LaRavia misses 27-foot three point shot102–128
- Q418.0Lakers offensive team rebound102–128
- Q418.9Patrick Baldwin Jr. blocks Kobe Bufkin 's 3-foot driving layup102–128
- Q436.9Maxime Raynaud makes 1-foot driving dunk (Devin Carter assists)102–128
- Q445.3Devin Carter defensive rebound100–128
- Q447.6Bronny James misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot100–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:42DeMar DeRozan makes 16-foot turnaround jump shot (Russell Westbrook assists)SAC 2 – 0 LAL · SAC 15% → 18% +3SAC 15% → 18%+3 pts
- Q111:01Austin Reaves makes two point shot (Luka Doncic assists)SAC 2 – 2 LAL · LAL 82% → 84% +3LAL 82% → 84%+3 pts
- Q110:31Deandre Ayton makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Luka Doncic assists)SAC 2 – 4 LAL · LAL 84% → 87% +2LAL 84% → 87%+2 pts
- Q16:27Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)SAC 8 – 17 LAL · LAL 90% → 93% +3LAL 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q36:47Marcus Smart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)SAC 60 – 74 LAL · LAL 94% → 96% +2LAL 94% → 96%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -12.5
- ML SAC +525 / LAL -750
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -9
- LAL 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- LAL: Elo 81.1%, market 84.7%
- Fair odds
- LAL -551
- SAC +551 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 111.5 – 124.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1365 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −65 | +32 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +253 Elo | LAL 81.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 80.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 80.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 84.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.4 | Points scored | 115.714th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.1 | Points allowed | 115.616th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.7 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 115.57th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.8 | Defense rating | 115.422nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.4 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–27 | Road vs home | 16–1213th of 30 |
| 1st of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 26th of 301365 | Elo rating | 152413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–37 | 31–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 23–13 |
| Underdog | 22–33 | 8–15 |
| Overs–unders | 31–30 | 32–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 5–6 LAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.
- Jan 12LAL 112 @ SAC 124Picked LAL 75%Miss
- Dec 28SAC 101 @ LAL 125Picked LAL 80%Hit
- Oct 26LAL 127 @ SAC 120Picked SAC 56%Miss
- Dec 28SAC 122 @ LAL 132Picked SAC 59%Miss
- Dec 21LAL 103 @ SAC 99Picked SAC 60%Miss
- Dec 19LAL 113 @ SAC 100Picked SAC 63%Miss
- Oct 26SAC 127 @ LAL 131Picked LAL 51%Hit
- Mar 13LAL 107 @ SAC 120Picked LAL 58%Miss