New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints23
- Jeremiah FearsAssists6
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds9
Kings- Precious AchiuwaPoints29
- Russell WestbrookAssists10
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–123
- Q41.0Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound133–123
- Q42.0Micah Peavy misses 26-foot three point jumper133–123
- Q48.0Malik Monk makes 8-foot floating jump shot (Russell Westbrook assists)133–123
- Q422.2Micah Peavy makes free throw 2 of 2133–121
- Q422.2Micah Peavy makes free throw 1 of 2132–121
- Q422.2DeMar DeRozan shooting foul131–121
- Q439.2Russell Westbrook makes free throw 2 of 2131–121
- Q439.2Micah Peavy enters the game for Herbert Jones131–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:18Trey Murphy III makes 27-foot three point jumperNO 47 – 48 SAC · NO 55% → 63% +8NO 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q23:11Russell Westbrook makes 26-foot jump bank shot (Nique Clifford assists)NO 51 – 53 SAC · SAC 32% → 40% +8SAC 32% → 40%+8 pts
- Q39:19Herbert Jones makes 26-foot three pointerNO 76 – 72 SAC · NO 66% → 74% +8NO 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q34:57Saddiq Bey makes 26-foot three point jumperNO 85 – 81 SAC · NO 65% → 74% +9NO 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q34:33Saddiq Bey makes 28-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 88 – 81 SAC · NO 74% → 82% +8NO 74% → 82%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NO -6.5
- ML NO -265 / SAC +215
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2.5
- NO 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- NO: Elo 60.4%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- NO -229
- SAC +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 121.5 – 115.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1380 | 1354 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | −70 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +73 Elo | NO 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 110.229th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 121.128th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.3 | Margin | −10.930th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 108.128th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 118.828th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.3 | Pace | 101.317th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 24th of 308–23 | Road vs home | 9–2129th of 30 |
| 6th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15201st of 30 |
| 25th of 301380 | Elo rating | 135427th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–30 | 24–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–3 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 25–27 | 22–35 |
| Overs–unders | 32–31 | 31–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 7–3 SAC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Feb 9SAC 94 @ NO 120Picked NO 77%Hit
- Feb 13SAC 133 @ NO 140Picked SAC 74%Miss
- Feb 12SAC 119 @ NO 111Picked SAC 66%Hit
- Feb 8NO 118 @ SAC 123Picked SAC 73%Hit
- Dec 12SAC 111 @ NO 109Picked SAC 68%Hit
- Apr 11NO 135 @ SAC 123Picked SAC 53%Miss
- Jan 7NO 133 @ SAC 100Picked SAC 58%Miss
- Dec 4NO 127 @ SAC 117Picked SAC 54%Miss