Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Jalen GreenPoints20
- Collin GillespieAssists9
- Oso IghodaroRebounds14
Kings- Maxime RaynaudPoints22
- Russell WestbrookAssists7
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–103
- Q421.7Royce O'Neale defensive rebound114–103
- Q423.9Killian Hayes misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot114–103
- Q430.8Mark Williams makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Devin Booker assists)114–103
- Q446.6Mark Williams defensive rebound112–103
- Q448.6Precious Achiuwa misses 9-foot two point shot112–103
- Q41:02Jalen Green traveling turnover112–103
- Q41:23Maxime Raynaud makes running layup (Killian Hayes assists)112–103
- Q41:30Nique Clifford defensive rebound112–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:26Grayson Allen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)PHX 25 – 30 SAC · PHX 54% → 61% +7PHX 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q22:22Devin Booker makes 27-foot three pointerPHX 51 – 48 SAC · PHX 69% → 76% +7PHX 69% → 76%+7 pts
- Q311:01Russell Westbrook makes 23-foot three point jumper (Maxime Raynaud assists)PHX 60 – 60 SAC · SAC 24% → 32% +8SAC 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q38:56Collin Gillespie makes 24-foot three pointer (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 65 – 63 SAC · PHX 64% → 73% +8PHX 64% → 73%+8 pts
- Q38:05Collin Gillespie makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 68 – 63 SAC · PHX 73% → 80% +7PHX 73% → 80%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -9.5
- ML PHX -360 / SAC +285
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -6.5
- PHX 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- PHX: Elo 73.5%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- PHX -301
- SAC +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 117.0 – 107.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1359 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | −75 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Missing Dylan Cardwell −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +178 Elo | PHX 73.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 70.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 110.329th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 121.228th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −10.930th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 108.128th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 118.929th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.3 | Pace | 101.417th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 15th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 9–2029th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15211st of 30 |
| 15th of 301516 | Elo rating | 135927th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−75 Elo- Dylan Cardwell sprained left ankle−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–24 | 24–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–10 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 18–14 | 22–34 |
| Overs–unders | 25–35 | 31–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 7–5 SAC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 12.
- Jan 2SAC 102 @ PHX 129Picked PHX 85%Hit
- Nov 26PHX 112 @ SAC 100Picked PHX 62%Hit
- Oct 22SAC 116 @ PHX 120Picked PHX 61%Hit
- Apr 13PHX 98 @ SAC 109Picked SAC 86%Hit
- Mar 14SAC 106 @ PHX 122Picked PHX 53%Hit
- Nov 13PHX 104 @ SAC 127Picked SAC 74%Hit
- Nov 10SAC 127 @ PHX 118Picked SAC 51%Hit
- Apr 12PHX 108 @ SAC 107Picked PHX 55%Hit