Chicago Bulls at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Collin SextonPoints30
- Collin SextonAssists5
- Nick RichardsRebounds11
Suns- Devin BookerPoints27
- Grayson AllenAssists8
- Ryan DunnRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–103
- Q44.4Tre Jones offensive rebound105–103
- Q44.4Nick Richards misses free throw 2 of 2105–103
- Q44.4Khaman Maluach enters the game for Grayson Allen105–103
- Q44.4Ryan Dunn enters the game for Jalen Green105–103
- Q44.4Nick Richards makes free throw 1 of 2105–103
- Q44.4Amir Coffey personal take foul104–103
- Q44.4Nick Richards defensive rebound104–103
- Q44.5Jalen Green misses driving layup104–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:53Amir Coffey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)CHI 98 – 94 PHX · PHX 10% → 27% +16PHX 10% → 27%+16 pts
- Q42:14Tre Jones makes running layupCHI 100 – 94 PHX · CHI 78% → 89% +12CHI 78% → 89%+12 pts
- Q455.0Guerschon Yabusele makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)CHI 103 – 97 PHX · CHI 84% → 98% +14CHI 84% → 98%+14 pts
- Q446.0Amir Coffey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)CHI 103 – 100 PHX · PHX <1% → 13% +12PHX <1% → 13%+12 pts
- Q422.9Devin Booker makes 27-foot three pointerCHI 104 – 103 PHX · PHX 1% → 31% +30PHX 1% → 31%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -10.5
- ML CHI +440 / PHX -600
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -6.5
- PHX 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- PHX: Elo 74.4%, market 82.2%
- Fair odds
- PHX -463
- CHI +463 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 107.0 – 117.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −42 | −16 | CHI: Missing Josh Giddey −34 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +185 Elo | PHX 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 74.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 74.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 82.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 112.126th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 111.26th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.3 | Margin | +0.914th of 30 |
| 25th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 112.319th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 111.310th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.2 | Pace | 99.326th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–19 | Road vs home | 20–1211th of 30 |
| 9th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15113rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301386 | Elo rating | 152114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−42 Elo- Josh Giddey right ankle sprain−34 Elo
Suns
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–35 | 37–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 19–10 |
| Underdog | 21–17 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–34 | 25–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–4 PHX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.