Oklahoma City Thunder at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jared McCainPoints20
- Jaylin WilliamsAssists6
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds16
Bulls- Collin SextonPoints20
- Josh GiddeyAssists9
- Nick RichardsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–108
- Q40.0(00:00) [Thunder] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)116–108
- Q40.0Bulls offensive team rebound116–108
- Q40.0Lachlan Olbrich misses 32-foot three point jumper116–108
- Q44.4Jaylin Williams makes free throw 2 of 2116–108
- Q44.4Jared McCain enters the game for Cason Wallace115–108
- Q44.4Jaylin Williams makes free throw 1 of 2115–108
- Q44.4Leonard Miller personal foul114–108
- Q46.2Nick Richards makes dunk114–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:33Jared McCain makes 28-foot three pointer (Jaylin Williams assists)OKC 55 – 51 CHI · OKC 72% → 79% +7OKC 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q311:26Josh Giddey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Guerschon Yabusele assists)OKC 57 – 57 CHI · CHI 24% → 31% +7CHI 24% → 31%+7 pts
- Q38:45Matas Buzelis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)OKC 65 – 63 CHI · CHI 19% → 27% +7CHI 19% → 27%+7 pts
- Q33:50Jared McCain makes 25-foot three point jumperOKC 79 – 71 CHI · OKC 75% → 87% +12OKC 75% → 87%+12 pts
- Q33:17Josh Giddey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)OKC 79 – 74 CHI · CHI 13% → 19% +7CHI 13% → 19%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -9.5
- ML OKC -380 / CHI +300
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6
- OKC 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 72.5%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- OKC -317
- CHI +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 120.5 – 111.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1702 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −115 | −7 | OKC: Missing Isaiah Hartenstein −20 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +168 Elo | OKC 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 74.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 74.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.2 | Points scored | 115.814th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 120.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.3 | Margin | −4.324th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 111.324th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.6 | Defense rating | 115.825th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.0 | Pace | 104.12nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 1st of 3022–8 | Road vs home | 16–1719th of 30 |
| 28th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 1st of 301702 | Elo rating | 139023rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−115 Elo- Isaiah Hartenstein right soleus injury management−20 Elo
Bulls
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–31 | 26–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 28–30 | 6–18 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 34–28 | 28–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 4–0 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.