Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints31
- Ryan RollinsAssists10
- Kevin Porter Jr.Rebounds7
Heat- Pelle LarssonPoints28
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists7
- Kel'el WareRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–112
- Q47.3Pelle Larsson defensive rebound105–112
- Q411.7Ryan Rollins misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot105–112
- Q416.2Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound105–112
- Q418.5Bam Adebayo misses free throw 2 of 2105–112
- Q418.5Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2105–112
- Q418.5Kevin Porter Jr. personal foul105–111
- Q418.8Bam Adebayo defensive rebound105–111
- Q423.2Bobby Portis misses 25-foot three point jumper105–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:10Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 51 – 51 MIA · MIL 30% → 38% +8MIL 30% → 38%+8 pts
- Q32:02Taurean Prince makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 74 – 78 MIA · MIL 19% → 27% +9MIL 19% → 27%+9 pts
- Q42:26Jericho Sims makes layupMIL 100 – 103 MIA · MIL 11% → 22% +11MIL 11% → 22%+11 pts
- Q42:16Pelle Larsson makes driving layupMIL 101 – 105 MIA · MIA 71% → 85% +14MIA 71% → 85%+14 pts
- Q41:23Giannis Antetokounmpo makes driving layupMIL 105 – 108 MIA · MIL 5% → 16% +11MIL 5% → 16%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -5.5
- ML MIL +180 / MIA -218
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -7
- MIA 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.7 pts
- MIA: Elo 75.5%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- MIA -192
- MIL +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 114.0 – 119.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +28 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −20, Norman Powell −13 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +195 Elo | MIA 75.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 69.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30111.1 | Points scored | 120.61st of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 116.720th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.9 | Margin | +3.99th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 113.713th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 109.94th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.3 | Pace | 105.71st of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–19 | Road vs home | 22–117th of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301410 | Elo rating | 155012th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+28 Elo- Tyler Herro sore left quadriceps−20 Elo
- Norman Powell strained right groin−13 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–36 | 40–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–16 | 19–14 |
| Underdog | 20–20 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–36 | 35–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–2 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Feb 24MIA 117 @ MIL 128Picked MIA 66%Miss
- Nov 26MIL 103 @ MIA 106Picked MIA 78%Hit
- Apr 5MIL 121 @ MIA 115Picked MIA 51%Miss
- Feb 23MIA 113 @ MIL 120Picked MIL 61%Hit
- Jan 23MIA 96 @ MIL 125Picked MIL 68%Hit
- Nov 26MIL 106 @ MIA 103Picked MIA 67%Miss
- Feb 13MIA 123 @ MIL 97Picked MIL 56%Miss
- Nov 28MIL 131 @ MIA 124Picked MIL 54%Hit