Washington Wizards at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints28
- Bilal CoulibalyAssists7
- Alex SarrRebounds6
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints83
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists8
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–150
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–150
- Q40.5shot clock turnover129–150
- Q424.5Bub Carrington makes two point shot (Bilal Coulibaly assists)129–150
- Q435.8Kasparas Jakucionis bad pass
turnover (Will Riley steals)127–150
- Q437.2Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound127–150
- Q439.9Bub Carrington misses 18-foot fade away jump shot127–150
- Q448.6Anthony Gill defensive rebound127–150
- Q448.6Vladislav Goldin misses two point shot127–150
- Q448.6Vladislav Goldin offensive rebound127–150
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:13Alex Sarr makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Johnson assists)WSH 3 – 5 MIA · WSH 7% → 10% +2WSH 7% → 10%+2 pts
- Q16:07Bam Adebayo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)WSH 13 – 16 MIA · MIA 87% → 90% +3MIA 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q15:33Tre Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)WSH 16 – 18 MIA · WSH 8% → 11% +3WSH 8% → 11%+3 pts
- Q14:58Bam Adebayo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)WSH 18 – 23 MIA · MIA 89% → 92% +3MIA 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q14:25Bam Adebayo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)WSH 20 – 26 MIA · MIA 90% → 93% +3MIA 90% → 93%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -15.5
- ML WSH +750 / MIA -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -12
- MIA 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 87.8%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- MIA -785
- WSH +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 110.0 – 125.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1274 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −22 | 0 | WSH: Missing Jamir Watkins −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −25, Norman Powell −16, Kel'el Ware −15 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +343 Elo | MIA 87.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 88.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 88.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 120.12nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.3 | Points allowed | 116.519th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.0 | Margin | +3.69th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 113.513th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.2 | Defense rating | 110.05th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.1 | Pace | 105.51st of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 28th of 305–25 | Road vs home | 21–117th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 30th of 301274 | Elo rating | 154712th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−22 Elo- Jamir Watkins left foot−1 Elo
Heat
0 Elo- Tyler Herro left quad−25 Elo
- Norman Powell right groin strain−16 Elo
- Kel'el Ware right shoulder−15 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–37 | 39–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 18–14 |
| Underdog | 24–34 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 34–29 | 34–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–7 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Feb 8MIA 132 @ WSH 101Picked MIA 83%Hit
- Apr 13WSH 119 @ MIA 118Picked MIA 75%Miss
- Mar 31MIA 120 @ WSH 94Picked MIA 78%Hit
- Mar 3WSH 90 @ MIA 106Picked MIA 74%Hit
- Nov 2MIA 118 @ WSH 98Picked MIA 78%Hit
- Mar 31MIA 119 @ WSH 107Picked MIA 68%Hit
- Mar 10WSH 110 @ MIA 108Picked MIA 79%Miss
- Feb 2MIA 110 @ WSH 102Picked MIA 59%Hit