Washington Wizards at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Tre JohnsonPoints20
- Trae YoungAssists8
- Julian ReeseRebounds9
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints24
- Jeremiah FearsAssists7
- Saddiq BeyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–138
- Q40.0Derik Queen bad pass
turnover (Julian Reese steals)118–138
- Q49.9Will Riley out of bounds lost ball turnover118–138
- Q426.9Julian Reese defensive rebound118–138
- Q429.8Jordan Hawkins misses 10-foot pullup jump shot118–138
- Q447.3Sharife Cooper makes free throw 2 of 2118–138
- Q447.3Sharife Cooper makes free throw 1 of 2117–138
- Q447.3Micah Peavy shooting foul116–138
- Q457.8Micah Peavy makes driving layup (Jeremiah Fears assists)116–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:32Leaky Black makes 24-foot three pointerWSH 23 – 15 NO · WSH 30% → 36% +6WSH 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q14:04Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotWSH 25 – 22 NO · NO 68% → 73% +6NO 68% → 73%+6 pts
- Q211:11Anthony Gill makes 23-foot three point jumper (Leaky Black assists)WSH 40 – 32 NO · WSH 33% → 40% +7WSH 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q28:06Trey Murphy III makes 28-foot three pointerWSH 46 – 45 NO · NO 68% → 74% +7NO 68% → 74%+7 pts
- Q31:32Derik Queen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)WSH 91 – 98 NO · NO 80% → 87% +7NO 80% → 87%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- NO -11.5
- ML WSH +400 / NO -535
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -4.5
- NO 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.6 pts
- NO: Elo 68.2%, market 80.8%
- Fair odds
- NO -421
- WSH +421 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 116.5 – 128.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1284 | 1385 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | +34 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +133 Elo | NO 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 76.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 76.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 80.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 115.216th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.0 | Points allowed | 120.227th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.8 | Margin | −5.025th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 111.721st of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.0 | Defense rating | 116.626th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.0 | Pace | 102.311th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–24 | Road vs home | 11–2125th of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 30 |
| 30th of 301284 | Elo rating | 138524th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–36 | 35–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 9–3 |
| Underdog | 24–33 | 26–27 |
| Overs–unders | 33–29 | 34–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–5 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.