Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints18
- Jalen SuggsAssists5
- Paolo BancheroRebounds10
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints41
- Jalen JohnsonAssists13
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–124
- Q44.8shot clock turnover112–124
- Q417.5Nickeil Alexander-Walker offensive rebound112–124
- Q419.5Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot112–124
- Q440.5Jalen Johnson defensive rebound112–124
- Q443.8Jase Richardson misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot112–124
- Q449.3Magic defensive team rebound112–124
- Q450.9Jalen Johnson misses 24-foot three point jumper112–124
- Q453.4Dyson Daniels offensive rebound112–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:35Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)ORL 2 – 3 ATL · ATL 54% → 60% +6ATL 54% → 60%+6 pts
- Q110:24Wendell Carter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 5 – 3 ATL · ORL 40% → 46% +6ORL 40% → 46%+6 pts
- Q18:00Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ORL 7 – 12 ATL · ATL 62% → 68% +6ATL 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q15:14Jevon Carter makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 16 – 18 ATL · ORL 32% → 38% +6ORL 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q12:24Jock Landale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)ORL 19 – 26 ATL · ATL 66% → 72% +6ATL 66% → 72%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -3.5
- ML ORL +130 / ATL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1.5
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -140
- ORL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 114.5 – 118.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +34 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +46 Elo | ATL 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 117.77th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 116.620th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +1.116th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 113.414th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 112.314th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.4 | Pace | 103.54th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 15th of 3016–15 | Road vs home | 18–1618th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149128th of 30 |
| 13th of 301540 | Elo rating | 153815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–36 | 35–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 18–25 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 20–14 |
| Overs–unders | 35–31 | 32–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–7 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Nov 4ORL 112 @ ATL 127Picked ORL 60%Miss
- Oct 24ATL 111 @ ORL 107Picked ORL 66%Miss
- Apr 13ORL 105 @ ATL 117Picked ORL 60%Miss
- Apr 8ATL 112 @ ORL 119Picked ORL 64%Hit
- Feb 20ORL 114 @ ATL 108Picked ORL 53%Hit
- Feb 10ATL 112 @ ORL 106Picked ORL 68%Miss
- Feb 25ORL 92 @ ATL 109Picked ORL 56%Miss
- Jan 17ORL 104 @ ATL 106Picked ORL 51%Miss