Orlando Magic at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints27
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds8
Heat- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Points22
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists7
- Kel'el WareRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–117
- Q42.3Paolo Banchero defensive rebound121–117
- Q42.3Bam Adebayo misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot121–117
- Q47.8Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2121–117
- Q47.8Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2120–117
- Q47.8Jaime Jaquez Jr. shooting foul119–117
- Q48.6Magic Full timeout119–117
- Q48.6Norman Powell makes 5-foot driving dunk (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)119–117
- Q411.0Heat Full timeout119–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:05Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three pointerORL 48 – 35 MIA · ORL 64% → 71% +7ORL 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q27:18Wendell Carter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 54 – 41 MIA · ORL 65% → 72% +7ORL 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q32:41Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jevon Carter assists)ORL 90 – 76 MIA · ORL 81% → 87% +7ORL 81% → 87%+7 pts
- Q31:25Norman Powell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)ORL 92 – 83 MIA · MIA 15% → 24% +8MIA 15% → 24%+8 pts
- Q418.5Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2ORL 117 – 115 MIA · MIA 3% → 10% +7MIA 3% → 10%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.7% of 394 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -4.5
- ML ORL +154 / MIA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2.5
- MIA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 60.8%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -165
- ORL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 116.0 – 120.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +55 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +76 Elo | MIA 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 56.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 120.52nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 116.520th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +3.99th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 113.713th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 109.84th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.4 | Pace | 105.71st of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3015–15 | Road vs home | 23–117th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 16th of 301531 | Elo rating | 155412th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–36 | 41–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 18–25 | 20–14 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 34–31 | 35–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 7–5 MIA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.
- Jan 28ORL 133 @ MIA 124Picked MIA 57%Miss
- Dec 9MIA 108 @ ORL 117Picked ORL 52%Hit
- Dec 5MIA 105 @ ORL 106Picked ORL 66%Hit
- Oct 22MIA 121 @ ORL 125Picked ORL 74%Hit
- Jan 27ORL 119 @ MIA 125Picked ORL 51%Miss
- Dec 26MIA 89 @ ORL 88Picked ORL 51%Miss
- Dec 21MIA 114 @ ORL 121Picked ORL 54%Hit
- Oct 23ORL 116 @ MIA 97Picked MIA 55%Miss