Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Bilal CoulibalyPoints29
- Trae YoungAssists6
- Tristan VukcevicRebounds11
Magic- Jalen SuggsPoints28
- Jalen SuggsAssists8
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game131–136
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime131–136
- OT5.1Leaky Black defensive rebound131–136
- OT8.9Desmond Bane misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot131–136
- OT18.9Tristan da Silva offensive rebound131–136
- OT22.9Jalen Suggs misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot131–136
- OT38.3Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound131–136
- OT41.2Tristan da Silva blocks Bilal Coulibaly 's 2-foot driving layup131–136
- OT56.1Jalen Suggs makes free throw 2 of 2131–136
- OT56.1Jalen Suggs makes free throw 1 of 2131–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q423.7Anthony Gill makes running layup (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 116 – 117 ORL · WSH 3% → 25% +22WSH 3% → 25%+22 pts
- Q418.3Leaky Black makes 1-foot dunk (Bilal Coulibaly assists)WSH 118 – 119 ORL · WSH 2% → 23% +21WSH 2% → 23%+21 pts
- Q45.8Bilal Coulibaly makes 26-foot three point shotWSH 123 – 123 ORL · WSH <1% → 48% +48WSH <1% → 48%+48 pts
- OT1:39Bilal Coulibaly makes 25-foot three point jumper (Leaky Black assists)WSH 131 – 131 ORL · WSH 15% → 42% +27WSH 15% → 42%+27 pts
- OT1:27Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three pointerWSH 131 – 134 ORL · ORL 58% → 86% +29ORL 58% → 86%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -14.5
- ML WSH +625 / ORL -950
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -9
- ORL 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- ORL: Elo 80.9%, market 86.8%
- Fair odds
- ORL -656
- WSH +656 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 111.0 – 125.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1271 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +16 | +13 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +251 Elo | ORL 80.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 83.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 83.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 86.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 115.317th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.7 | Points allowed | 113.811th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.1 | Margin | +1.512th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.3 | Defense rating | 111.39th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.3 | Pace | 101.317th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–26 | Road vs home | 20–1110th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 30th of 301271 | Elo rating | 152915th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–38 | 29–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 18–24 |
| Underdog | 24–35 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders | 35–29 | 33–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–10 ORL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.
- Mar 3WSH 109 @ ORL 126Picked ORL 89%Hit
- Jan 6ORL 112 @ WSH 120Picked ORL 71%Miss
- Nov 1ORL 125 @ WSH 94Picked ORL 76%Hit
- Apr 3ORL 109 @ WSH 97Picked ORL 90%Hit
- Mar 21ORL 120 @ WSH 105Picked ORL 75%Hit
- Feb 23WSH 90 @ ORL 110Picked ORL 85%Hit
- Nov 10WSH 94 @ ORL 121Picked ORL 83%Hit
- Mar 6ORL 119 @ WSH 109Picked ORL 73%Hit