Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- James HardenPoints30
- James HardenAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds13
Magic- Desmond BanePoints35
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–128
- Q40.0Cavaliers offensive team rebound122–128
- Q40.0Keon Ellis misses 27-foot three point jumper122–128
- Q41.5Evan Mobley defensive rebound122–128
- Q43.5Tristan da Silva misses free throw 2 of 2122–128
- Q43.5Tristan da Silva makes free throw 1 of 2122–128
- Q43.5Keon Ellis personal take foul122–127
- Q43.5Tristan da Silva defensive rebound122–127
- Q46.0Donovan Mitchell misses 24-foot three point shot122–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:39Wendell Carter Jr. makes 23-foot running jump shot (Paolo Banchero assists)CLE 81 – 86 ORL · ORL 53% → 64% +11ORL 53% → 64%+11 pts
- Q32:01Thomas Bryant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 84 – 86 ORL · CLE 36% → 47% +11CLE 36% → 47%+11 pts
- Q31:42Jevon Carter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Noah Penda assists)CLE 84 – 89 ORL · ORL 53% → 65% +11ORL 53% → 65%+11 pts
- Q31:09Jett Howard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jevon Carter assists)CLE 86 – 93 ORL · ORL 61% → 72% +11ORL 61% → 72%+11 pts
- Q438.5Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (James Harden assists)CLE 120 – 122 ORL · CLE 1% → 19% +18CLE 1% → 19%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -3.5
- ML CLE -155 / ORL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -140
- ORL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 115.0 – 111.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1633 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +21 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +58 Elo | CLE 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 115.119th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 113.611th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.2 | Margin | +1.513th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 112.618th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 111.29th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.9 | Pace | 101.316th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 8th of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 19–1111th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 5th of 301633 | Elo rating | 152016th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–38 | 28–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–33 | 18–24 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders | 30–35 | 32–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 10–6 ORL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.
- Jan 26ORL 98 @ CLE 114Picked CLE 64%Hit
- Jan 24CLE 119 @ ORL 105Picked ORL 53%Miss
- Mar 16ORL 108 @ CLE 103Picked CLE 80%Miss
- Feb 25CLE 122 @ ORL 82Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Nov 1ORL 109 @ CLE 120Picked CLE 72%Hit
- May 5ORL 94 @ CLE 106PlayoffsPicked ORL 55%Miss
- May 3CLE 96 @ ORL 103PlayoffsPicked ORL 66%Hit
- Apr 30ORL 103 @ CLE 104PlayoffsPicked ORL 55%Miss