Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Quentin GrimesPoints17
- Cameron PayneAssists4
- Adem BonaRebounds7
Cavaliers- James HardenPoints21
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Dean WadeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–115
- Q416.9MarJon Beauchamp makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot101–115
- Q421.3Nae'Qwan Tomlin lost ball turnover (MarJon Beauchamp steals)98–115
- Q427.8Dalen Terry personal foul98–115
- Q432.1Tristan Enaruna defensive rebound98–115
- Q435.3Tyrese Martin misses 26-foot three point jumper98–115
- Q443.5Dalen Terry defensive rebound98–115
- Q445.5Tristan Enaruna misses 23-foot three point jumper98–115
- Q41:02Tyrese Martin bad pass
turnover (Nae'Qwan Tomlin steals)98–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:39Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)PHI 7 – 4 CLE · PHI 15% → 19% +4PHI 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q16:31Quentin Grimes makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)PHI 12 – 7 CLE · PHI 18% → 23% +5PHI 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q13:30James Harden makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaylon Tyson assists)PHI 16 – 16 CLE · CLE 79% → 83% +5CLE 79% → 83%+5 pts
- Q12:27Keon Ellis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)PHI 18 – 19 CLE · CLE 80% → 85% +5CLE 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q210:58Justin Edwards makes 27-foot three pointer (Tyrese Martin assists)PHI 25 – 28 CLE · PHI 10% → 14% +4PHI 10% → 14%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -14.5
- ML PHI +575 / CLE -850
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -10.5
- CLE 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 84.7%, market 85.8%
- Fair odds
- CLE -604
- PHI +604 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 106.0 – 120.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1630 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −143 | −16 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +298 Elo | CLE 84.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 83.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 83.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 85.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 118.83rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 114.814th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +4.08th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 115.87th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 111.913th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.3 | Pace | 102.012th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 10th of 3017–13 | Road vs home | 21–129th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 18th of 301496 | Elo rating | 16305th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−143 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–29 | 27–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–14 | 19–32 |
| Underdog | 14–15 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 33–30 | 30–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–7 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Jan 16CLE 117 @ PHI 115Picked PHI 55%Miss
- Jan 14CLE 133 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 50%Miss
- Nov 5PHI 121 @ CLE 132Picked CLE 80%Hit
- Jan 24CLE 129 @ PHI 132Picked CLE 77%Miss
- Dec 21PHI 99 @ CLE 126Picked CLE 77%Hit
- Nov 13CLE 114 @ PHI 106Picked CLE 83%Hit
- Mar 29PHI 114 @ CLE 117Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Feb 23CLE 97 @ PHI 104Picked CLE 62%Miss