Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints23
- Jaylen BrownAssists8
- Neemias QuetaRebounds11
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints30
- James HardenAssists10
- Evan MobleyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–98
- Q413.2Neemias Queta defensive rebound109–98
- Q415.6Sam Merrill misses 22-foot three point pullup jump shot109–98
- Q419.6Neemias Queta enters the game for Jayson Tatum109–98
- Q419.6Cavaliers offensive team rebound109–98
- Q420.2Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot three point jumper109–98
- Q426.0Jaylon Tyson offensive rebound109–98
- Q427.8Evan Mobley misses 22-foot three point jumper109–98
- Q436.0Payton Pritchard makes free throw 2 of 2109–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:17James Harden makes 25-foot three pointerBOS 22 – 20 CLE · CLE 41% → 47% +7CLE 41% → 47%+7 pts
- Q12:16Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 28 – 24 CLE · BOS 50% → 57% +7BOS 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q11:06Luka Garza makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 32 – 24 CLE · BOS 60% → 66% +7BOS 60% → 66%+7 pts
- Q46:24Jaylon Tyson makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)BOS 94 – 86 CLE · CLE 6% → 13% +7CLE 6% → 13%+7 pts
- Q46:01Payton Pritchard makes 33-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 97 – 86 CLE · BOS 88% → 95% +7BOS 88% → 95%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -1.5
- ML BOS +100 / CLE -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -1.5
- CLE 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 43.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 111.5 – 113.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1652 | 1639 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +53 | −17 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +47 Elo | BOS 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 119.13rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 114.914th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.5 | Margin | +4.27th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 115.95th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 111.813th of 30 |
| 30th of 3096.9 | Pace | 102.112th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–11 | Road vs home | 21–117th of 30 |
| 30th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301652 | Elo rating | 16394th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–26 | 27–36 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–20 | 19–31 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 22–41 | 30–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 10–4 CLE in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.
- Nov 30BOS 117 @ CLE 115Picked CLE 70%Miss
- Oct 29CLE 105 @ BOS 125Picked CLE 60%Miss
- Feb 28CLE 123 @ BOS 116Picked BOS 51%Miss
- Feb 4BOS 112 @ CLE 105Picked CLE 52%Miss
- Dec 1BOS 111 @ CLE 115Picked CLE 53%Hit
- Nov 19CLE 117 @ BOS 120Picked BOS 70%Hit
- May 15CLE 98 @ BOS 113PlayoffsPicked BOS 83%Hit
- May 13BOS 109 @ CLE 102PlayoffsPicked BOS 74%Hit