Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Gary Payton IIPoints14
- Draymond GreenAssists5
- Gary Payton IIRebounds6
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints32
- Payton PritchardAssists7
- Jayson TatumRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–120
- Q423.3Celtics defensive team rebound99–120
- Q428.0Pat Spencer misses 23-foot three point jumper99–120
- Q443.2Max Shulga bad pass
turnover (Pat Spencer steals)99–120
- Q453.4Pat Spencer makes free throw 2 of 299–120
- Q453.4Pat Spencer makes free throw 1 of 298–120
- Q453.4Baylor Scheierman shooting foul97–120
- Q41:05Nate Williams defensive goaltending violation97–120
- Q41:05Charles Bassey makes 5-foot layup (Max Shulga assists)97–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:59Kristaps Porzingis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 3 – 0 BOS · GS 18% → 22% +4GS 18% → 22%+4 pts
- Q110:10Draymond Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 6 – 2 BOS · GS 19% → 24% +5GS 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q18:51Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three pointerGS 6 – 7 BOS · BOS 79% → 83% +4BOS 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q18:20Sam Hauser makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)GS 8 – 10 BOS · BOS 80% → 84% +4BOS 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q18:04Draymond Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 11 – 10 BOS · GS 16% → 20% +4GS 16% → 20%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -11.5
- ML GS +455 / BOS -625
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -9.5
- BOS 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 82.4%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -478
- GS +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 102.5 – 114.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1655 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −29 | +51 | GS: Missing LJ Cryer −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +268 Elo | BOS 82.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 79.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 79.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 114.320th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 107.11st of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +7.33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 117.72nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 110.14th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.2 | Pace | 96.830th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 20th of 3014–20 | Road vs home | 23–106th of 30 |
| 8th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 148330th of 30 |
| 18th of 301503 | Elo rating | 16553rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−29 Elo- LJ Cryer left hamstring - injury management−2 Elo
Celtics
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–37 | 39–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–24 | 27–22 |
| Underdog | 11–13 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 41–27 | 24–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 2–3 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.