Chicago Bulls at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints41
- Josh GiddeyAssists17
- Josh GiddeyRebounds13
Warriors- Gui SantosPoints17
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists7
- Gary Payton IIRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game130–124
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime130–124
- OT0.0Warriors offensive team rebound130–124
- OT0.0Gui Santos misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot130–124
- OT9.0Al Horford defensive rebound130–124
- OT10.6Josh Giddey misses free throw 2 of 2130–124
- OT10.6Josh Giddey makes free throw 1 of 2130–124
- OT10.6Gui Santos personal take foul129–124
- OT13.0Will Richard personal take foul129–124
- OT16.3Jalen Smith defensive rebound129–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q421.4Leonard Miller makes running layup (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 114 – 115 GS · CHI 3% → 26% +23CHI 3% → 26%+23 pts
- Q41.4Jalen Smith makes free throw 2 of 2CHI 118 – 118 GS · CHI <1% → 50% +49CHI <1% → 50%+49 pts
- OT3:45Draymond Green makes 27-foot three point jumper (Will Richard assists)CHI 122 – 121 GS · GS 27% → 48% +21GS 27% → 48%+21 pts
- OT2:20Matas Buzelis makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 125 – 121 GS · CHI 55% → 80% +25CHI 55% → 80%+25 pts
- OT1:42Gui Santos makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)CHI 127 – 124 GS · GS 6% → 23% +17GS 6% → 23%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- GS -6.5
- ML CHI +195 / GS -238
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2.5
- GS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- GS: Elo 60.7%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- GS -208
- CHI +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 110.5 – 117.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +27 | −38 | CHI: Missing Collin Sexton −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · GS: Missing De'Anthony Melton −14 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +75 Elo | GS 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 61.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 115.119th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 114.012th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.4 | Margin | +1.115th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 111.913th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.3 | Pace | 101.318th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–20 | Road vs home | 19–1313th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15086th of 30 |
| 24th of 301376 | Elo rating | 152016th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+27 Elo- Collin Sexton left leg injury−12 Elo
Warriors
−38 Elo- De'Anthony Melton left adductor soreness−14 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–36 | 29–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–19 | 19–23 |
| Underdog | 22–17 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–36 | 38–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–4 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.