Chicago Bulls at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Collin SextonPoints28
- Josh GiddeyAssists10
- Josh GiddeyRebounds12
Kings- Malik MonkPoints30
- Russell WestbrookAssists12
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–126
- Q418.1shot clock turnover110–126
- Q439.2Russell Westbrook defensive rebound110–126
- Q441.5Rob Dillingham misses driving layup110–126
- Q448.9Russell Westbrook makes free throw 2 of 2110–126
- Q448.9Russell Westbrook makes free throw 1 of 2110–125
- Q448.9Yuki Kawamura personal foul110–124
- Q459.9Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound110–124
- Q41:03Leonard Miller misses 27-foot three point jumper110–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:09Nique Clifford makes 28-foot three point jumper (Devin Carter assists)CHI 28 – 35 SAC · SAC 47% → 54% +7SAC 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q210:24Collin Sexton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CHI 33 – 36 SAC · CHI 48% → 55% +7CHI 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q29:35Collin Sexton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CHI 36 – 38 SAC · CHI 50% → 57% +7CHI 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q29:10Malik Monk makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Carter assists)CHI 36 – 41 SAC · SAC 43% → 50% +7SAC 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q33:17Collin Sexton makes 29-foot three pointer (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 86 – 96 SAC · CHI 16% → 24% +8CHI 16% → 24%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -4.5
- ML CHI -205 / SAC +170
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2.5
- CHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- CHI: Elo 60.8%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CHI -181
- SAC +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 120.5 – 116.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1394 | 1346 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | −82 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +77 Elo | CHI 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 56.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 110.429th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 121.328th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.2 | Margin | −10.929th of 30 |
| 25th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 108.228th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 118.928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.3 | Pace | 101.415th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–19 | Road vs home | 9–2229th of 30 |
| 7th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15152nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301394 | Elo rating | 134627th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–35 | 24–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 22–17 | 22–36 |
| Overs–unders | 28–35 | 32–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–2 SAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.