Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Gui SantosPoints22
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists6
- Gary Payton IIRebounds12
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints27
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–104
- Q410.6Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound97–104
- Q413.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander blocks Gui Santos 's 2-foot reverse layup97–104
- Q427.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 297–104
- Q427.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 297–103
- Q427.0Gui Santos personal foul97–102
- Q435.7Luguentz Dort defensive rebound97–102
- Q438.5Kristaps Porzingis misses 9-foot fade away jump shot97–102
- Q442.4Kristaps Porzingis enters the game for Gary Payton II97–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:14Malevy Leons makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)GS 77 – 77 OKC · GS 21% → 29% +8GS 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q31:15Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)GS 79 – 84 OKC · OKC 76% → 84% +8OKC 76% → 84%+8 pts
- Q411:17Jaylin Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)GS 83 – 89 OKC · OKC 78% → 86% +8OKC 78% → 86%+8 pts
- Q42:02Gui Santos makes running layup (Al Horford assists)GS 97 – 99 OKC · GS 11% → 24% +13GS 11% → 24%+13 pts
- Q442.8Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotGS 97 – 102 OKC · OKC 83% → 99% +15OKC 83% → 99%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -11.5
- ML GS +455 / OKC -625
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7.5
- OKC 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- OKC: Elo 77.3%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- OKC -478
- GS +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 104.0 – 115.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1712 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | −41 | GS: Missing De'Anthony Melton −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · OKC: Missing Alex Caruso −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +213 Elo | OKC 77.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 79.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 79.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 118.94th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 107.82nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +11.11st of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 116.34th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 105.41st of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.4 | Pace | 101.119th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 19th of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 25–61st of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149027th of 30 |
| 14th of 301531 | Elo rating | 17121st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−37 Elo- De'Anthony Melton left knee injury management−13 Elo
Thunder
−41 Elo- Alex Caruso left hip injury−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–34 | 31–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–22 | 28–32 |
| Underdog | 9–12 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 37–25 | 34–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–7 OKC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Jan 2OKC 131 @ GS 94Picked OKC 84%Hit
- Dec 2OKC 124 @ GS 112Picked OKC 81%Hit
- Nov 11GS 102 @ OKC 126Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Jan 29OKC 109 @ GS 116Picked OKC 78%Miss
- Nov 27OKC 105 @ GS 101Picked OKC 61%Hit
- Nov 10GS 127 @ OKC 116Picked OKC 69%Miss
- Dec 8GS 136 @ OKC 138Picked OKC 72%Hit
- Nov 18OKC 130 @ GS 123Picked OKC 61%Hit