Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Chet HolmgrenPoints28
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds8
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints17
- Jalen BrunsonAssists15
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–100
- Q40.1Knicks offensive team rebound103–100
- Q40.1OG Anunoby misses 27-foot turnaround jump shot103–100
- Q40.7Mikal Bridges offensive rebound103–100
- Q43.9Jalen Brunson misses 23-foot three point jumper103–100
- Q46.0Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Joe103–100
- Q46.0Knicks Full timeout103–100
- Q415.6Josh Hart defensive rebound103–100
- Q417.7Chet Holmgren misses 7-foot turnaround jump shot103–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:50Jalen Brunson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)OKC 75 – 75 NY · NY 33% → 44% +11NY 33% → 44%+11 pts
- Q31.7Mikal Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)OKC 77 – 80 NY · NY 44% → 57% +12NY 44% → 57%+12 pts
- Q48:55Kenrich Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 86 – 83 NY · OKC 55% → 69% +14OKC 55% → 69%+14 pts
- Q47:24Aaron Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 91 – 86 NY · OKC 65% → 78% +13OKC 65% → 78%+13 pts
- Q46:16OG Anunoby makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)OKC 92 – 89 NY · NY 17% → 29% +13NY 17% → 29%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -4.5
- ML OKC -180 / NY +150
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -0.5
- OKC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 51.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- OKC -161
- NY +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 113.0 – 108.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1707 | 1649 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | NY and OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +13 | +10 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +13 Elo | OKC 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 54.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.1 | Points scored | 117.29th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 110.95th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.2 | Margin | +6.35th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 117.03rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.5 | Defense rating | 110.77th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.1 | Pace | 99.624th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 1st of 3023–8 | Road vs home | 23–84th of 30 |
| 28th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 149225th of 30 |
| 1st of 301707 | Elo rating | 16493rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–32 | 33–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–31 | 28–24 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 34–29 | 31–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 4–0 NY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.