Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Brandin PodziemskiPoints26
- Draymond GreenAssists8
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds9
Rockets- Reed SheppardPoints30
- Alperen SengunAssists7
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game115–113
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime115–113
- OT0.1Draymond Green bad pass
turnover (Kevin Durant steals)115–113
- OT0.1Reed Sheppard enters the game for Tari Eason115–113
- OT0.1Tari Eason personal foul115–113
- OT4.2Josh Okogie enters the game for Alperen Sengun115–113
- OT4.2Warriors Full timeout115–113
- OT4.2Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2115–113
- OT4.2Amen Thompson enters the game for Reed Sheppard115–112
- OT4.2Rockets offensive team rebound115–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:19De'Anthony Melton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)GS 98 – 97 HOU · GS 23% → 58% +35GS 23% → 58%+35 pts
- Q41:07Alperen Sengun makes 6-foot two point shotGS 98 – 99 HOU · HOU 41% → 67% +27HOU 41% → 67%+27 pts
- Q445.2Al Horford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 101 – 99 HOU · GS 31% → 77% +46GS 31% → 77%+46 pts
- Q427.6Alperen Sengun makes 6-foot two point shotGS 101 – 101 HOU · HOU 16% → 53% +37HOU 16% → 53%+37 pts
- OT1:00Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)GS 111 – 110 HOU · HOU 9% → 40% +31HOU 9% → 40%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -9.5
- ML GS +310 / HOU -395
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5.5
- HOU 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 71.6%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -327
- GS +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 102.5 – 112.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −53 | −4 | GS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −31 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +160 Elo | HOU 71.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 75.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 75.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 114.720th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 109.43rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +5.36th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 115.57th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 110.26th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–17 | Road vs home | 20–74th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 13th of 301523 | Elo rating | 157410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−53 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis illness−31 Elo
Rockets
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–34 | 27–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–22 | 22–32 |
| Underdog | 8–12 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 36–25 | 26–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 10–6 HOU in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.
- Nov 26HOU 104 @ GS 100Picked GS 61%Miss
- May 4GS 103 @ HOU 89PlayoffsPicked HOU 55%Miss
- May 2HOU 115 @ GS 107PlayoffsPicked GS 68%Miss
- Apr 30GS 116 @ HOU 131PlayoffsPicked HOU 62%Hit
- Apr 28HOU 106 @ GS 109PlayoffsPicked GS 59%Hit
- Apr 26HOU 93 @ GS 104PlayoffsPicked GS 54%Hit
- Apr 23GS 94 @ HOU 109PlayoffsPicked HOU 61%Hit
- Apr 20GS 95 @ HOU 85PlayoffsPicked HOU 52%Miss