Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- De'Anthony MeltonPoints22
- Draymond GreenAssists11
- Gui SantosRebounds8
Jazz- Brice SensabaughPoints21
- Cody WilliamsAssists7
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–119
- Q40.2Warriors offensive team rebound116–119
- Q40.2Gui Santos misses 24-foot three point jumper116–119
- Q41.7LJ Cryer enters the game for Quinten Post116–119
- Q41.7De'Anthony Melton enters the game for Brandin Podziemski116–119
- Q41.7Seth Curry enters the game for Gary Payton II116–119
- Q41.7Warriors Full timeout116–119
- Q41.7Elijah Harkless makes free throw 2 of 2116–119
- Q41.7Quinten Post enters the game for De'Anthony Melton116–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:29Cody Williams makes 4-foot dunk (John Konchar assists)GS 105 – 108 UTAH · UTAH 52% → 67% +15UTAH 52% → 67%+15 pts
- Q43:18De'Anthony Melton makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Draymond Green assists)GS 107 – 108 UTAH · GS 32% → 47% +15GS 32% → 47%+15 pts
- Q43:06Blake Hinson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cody Williams assists)GS 108 – 111 UTAH · UTAH 45% → 69% +24UTAH 45% → 69%+24 pts
- Q41:34De'Anthony Melton makes driving layupGS 112 – 113 UTAH · GS 22% → 42% +20GS 22% → 42%+20 pts
- Q429.9Blake Hinson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cody Williams assists)GS 113 – 116 UTAH · UTAH 48% → 93% +45UTAH 48% → 93%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- GS -6.5
- ML GS -265 / UTAH +215
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3.5
- GS 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- GS: Elo 63.4%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- GS -229
- UTAH +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 115.5 – 109.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1323 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −66 | +8 | GS: Missing Moses Moody −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Walker Kessler −13 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +95 Elo | GS 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 62.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 117.48th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 125.030th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −7.726th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 112.120th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 119.430th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.3 | Pace | 103.74th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 20th of 3013–18 | Road vs home | 11–2126th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15086th of 30 |
| 15th of 301528 | Elo rating | 132329th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−66 Elo- Moses Moody sprained right wrist−2 Elo
Jazz
+8 Elo- Walker Kessler left shoulder−13 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–34 | 34–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–22 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 10–12 | 29–28 |
| Overs–unders | 37–26 | 36–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 9–1 UTAH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Jan 28GS 140 @ UTAH 124Picked GS 72%Hit
- Jan 3UTAH 114 @ GS 123Picked GS 82%Hit
- Nov 24UTAH 117 @ GS 134Picked GS 85%Hit
- Feb 5GS 128 @ UTAH 131Picked GS 68%Miss
- Jan 28UTAH 103 @ GS 114Picked GS 79%Hit
- Oct 25GS 127 @ UTAH 86Picked GS 69%Hit
- Apr 14UTAH 116 @ GS 123Picked GS 80%Hit
- Apr 7UTAH 110 @ GS 118Picked GS 80%Hit