Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Tristan VukcevicPoints22
- Bub CarringtonAssists8
- Jamir WatkinsRebounds6
Celtics- Neemias QuetaPoints24
- Jayson TatumAssists7
- Jayson TatumRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–111
- Q413.1shot clock turnover100–111
- Q437.1Justin Champagnie makes 1-foot running dunk (Anthony Gill assists)100–111
- Q439.3Ron Harper Jr. lost ball turnover (Justin Champagnie steals)98–111
- Q455.2Justin Champagnie makes free throw 2 of 298–111
- Q455.2Justin Champagnie makes free throw 1 of 297–111
- Q455.2Ron Harper Jr. shooting foul96–111
- Q455.6Wizards offensive team rebound96–111
- Q456.9Jamir Watkins misses 28-foot three point jumper96–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:44Tristan Vukcevic makes 25-foot running jump shot (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 17 – 20 BOS · WSH 5% → 7% +2WSH 5% → 7%+2 pts
- Q13:16Tristan Vukcevic makes 29-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 20 – 20 BOS · WSH 7% → 10% +3WSH 7% → 10%+3 pts
- Q11:21Jaylen Brown makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Luka Garza assists)WSH 24 – 26 BOS · BOS 90% → 92% +2BOS 90% → 92%+2 pts
- Q11:05Jamir Watkins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sharife Cooper assists)WSH 27 – 26 BOS · WSH 8% → 11% +3WSH 8% → 11%+3 pts
- Q130.9Baylor Scheierman makes 28-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)WSH 27 – 29 BOS · BOS 89% → 92% +3BOS 89% → 92%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 93%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -20.5
- ML WSH +1200 / BOS -2400
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 92%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -15.5
- BOS 92%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 92.4%, market 92.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -1248
- WSH +1248 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 106.0 – 126.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1269 | 1649 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +42 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +434 Elo | BOS 92.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 92.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 92.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 92.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 114.320th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.9 | Points allowed | 107.11st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.0 | Margin | +7.23rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 117.72nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.3 | Defense rating | 110.15th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.4 | Pace | 96.830th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–27 | Road vs home | 21–106th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 148830th of 30 |
| 30th of 301269 | Elo rating | 16493rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–38 | 39–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 27–20 |
| Underdog | 25–35 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 36–29 | 23–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–10 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Dec 4BOS 146 @ WSH 101Picked BOS 80%Hit
- Nov 5WSH 107 @ BOS 136Picked BOS 85%Hit
- Apr 6WSH 90 @ BOS 124Picked BOS 93%Hit
- Dec 15BOS 112 @ WSH 98Picked BOS 91%Hit
- Nov 22BOS 108 @ WSH 96Picked BOS 90%Hit
- Oct 24BOS 122 @ WSH 102Picked BOS 87%Hit
- Apr 14WSH 122 @ BOS 132Picked BOS 76%Hit
- Mar 17BOS 130 @ WSH 104Picked BOS 79%Hit