Boston Celtics at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Derrick WhitePoints34
- Derrick WhiteAssists7
- Sam HauserRebounds7
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints39
- De'Aaron FoxAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–125
- Q44.7shot clock turnover116–125
- Q427.5Mason Plumlee defensive rebound116–125
- Q432.9Baylor Scheierman misses running pullup jump shot116–125
- Q437.7Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound116–125
- Q440.9De'Aaron Fox misses free throw 1 of 1116–125
- Q440.9Dylan Harper enters the game for Devin Vassell116–125
- Q440.9Mason Plumlee enters the game for Stephon Castle116–125
- Q440.9Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for Keldon Johnson116–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:03Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 97 – 103 SA · SA 68% → 81% +12SA 68% → 81%+12 pts
- Q47:35Ron Harper Jr. makes 27-foot jump bank shot (Derrick White assists)BOS 100 – 103 SA · BOS 19% → 31% +12BOS 19% → 31%+12 pts
- Q47:23Keldon Johnson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)BOS 100 – 106 SA · SA 69% → 81% +12SA 69% → 81%+12 pts
- Q46:38Baylor Scheierman makes 25-foot three pointer (Luka Garza assists)BOS 105 – 106 SA · BOS 26% → 41% +15BOS 26% → 41%+15 pts
- Q45:57Victor Wembanyama makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)BOS 105 – 111 SA · SA 70% → 83% +13SA 70% → 83%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -3.5
- ML BOS +136 / SA -162
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1
- SA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- SA: Elo 53.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- SA -146
- BOS +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 109.0 – 112.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1661 | 1643 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +48 | +56 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +25 Elo | SA 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 57.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.5 | Points scored | 118.56th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.9 | Points allowed | 111.77th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.6 | Margin | +6.84th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 116.15th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 109.43rd of 30 |
| 30th of 3096.8 | Pace | 101.912th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3022–11 | Road vs home | 24–62nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301661 | Elo rating | 16433rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–26 | 38–27 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–20 | 25–21 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 22–42 | 27–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–1 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.