Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints23
- Amen ThompsonAssists6
- Amen ThompsonRebounds7
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints29
- De'Aaron FoxAssists10
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–145
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–145
- Q41.4Jeff Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)120–145
- Q45.7shot clock turnover117–145
- Q428.5Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound117–145
- Q432.1Josh Okogie misses 25-foot running jump shot117–145
- Q437.4Bismack Biyombo lost ball turnover (Josh Okogie steals)117–145
- Q456.3Aaron Holiday makes 2-foot two point shot117–145
- Q41:04Carter Bryant makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jordan McLaughlin assists)115–145
- Q41:23Aaron Holiday makes free throw 1 of 1115–142
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:20Dorian Finney-Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 21 – 24 SA · HOU 23% → 28% +6HOU 23% → 28%+6 pts
- Q11:43Keldon Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)HOU 27 – 29 SA · SA 63% → 69% +6SA 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q29:34Stephon Castle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)HOU 37 – 43 SA · SA 71% → 77% +6SA 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q23:45Dylan Harper makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)HOU 49 – 58 SA · SA 77% → 83% +6SA 77% → 83%+6 pts
- Q23:35Reed Sheppard makes 26-foot three pointer (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 52 – 58 SA · HOU 17% → 23% +6HOU 17% → 23%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SA -5.5
- ML HOU +190 / SA -230
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5
- SA 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- SA: Elo 69.7%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- SA -202
- HOU +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 109.0 – 114.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1632 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +46 | HOU: Usual rotation · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +145 Elo | SA 69.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 118.16th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 111.67th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +6.54th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 115.77th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 109.33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.9 | Pace | 101.913th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 11th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 23–62nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 10th of 301572 | Elo rating | 16324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–34 | 37–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–33 | 24–21 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 27–35 | 26–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 7–4 SA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Jan 28SA 111 @ HOU 99Picked HOU 56%Miss
- Jan 20SA 106 @ HOU 111Picked HOU 61%Hit
- Nov 7HOU 110 @ SA 121Picked HOU 61%Miss
- Feb 26SA 106 @ HOU 118Picked HOU 72%Hit
- Nov 6SA 100 @ HOU 127Picked HOU 70%Hit
- Oct 28HOU 106 @ SA 101Picked HOU 56%Hit
- Oct 26HOU 106 @ SA 109Picked HOU 53%Miss
- Mar 12HOU 103 @ SA 101Picked SA 52%Miss