Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints21
- Jrue HolidayAssists10
- Donovan ClinganRebounds13
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints28
- Amen ThompsonAssists7
- Kevin DurantRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–106
- Q41.2Reed Sheppard makes free throw 2 of 299–106
- Q41.2Reed Sheppard makes free throw 1 of 299–105
- Q41.2Jerami Grant personal take foul99–104
- Q49.5Jrue Holiday makes 7-foot two point shot99–104
- Q415.6Kevin Durant makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Amen Thompson assists)97–104
- Q440.2Jerami Grant bad pass
turnover (Amen Thompson steals)97–102
- Q443.8Amen Thompson lost ball turnover (Jerami Grant steals)97–102
- Q453.4Matisse Thybulle makes 5-foot two point shot97–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:52Matisse Thybulle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Blake Wesley assists)POR 85 – 77 HOU · POR 62% → 74% +12POR 62% → 74%+12 pts
- Q49:41Alperen Sengun makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)POR 87 – 85 HOU · HOU 36% → 50% +14HOU 36% → 50%+14 pts
- Q47:58Amen Thompson makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotPOR 89 – 87 HOU · HOU 38% → 48% +10HOU 38% → 48%+10 pts
- Q47:16Amen Thompson makes 9-foot pullup jump shotPOR 89 – 89 HOU · HOU 47% → 58% +11HOU 47% → 58%+11 pts
- Q47:00Amen Thompson makes 1-foot running dunk (Kevin Durant assists)POR 89 – 91 HOU · HOU 58% → 68% +10HOU 58% → 68%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML POR +215 / HOU -265
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3.5
- HOU 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 64.5%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -229
- POR +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 107.0 – 113.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +7 | −1 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −44, Deni Avdija −17, Shaedon Sharpe −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · HOU: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +104 Elo | HOU 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 63.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 114.720th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.9 | Margin | +5.26th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 115.410th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 110.26th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.4 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 18th of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 20–85th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 20th of 301450 | Elo rating | 156611th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+7 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles rehab−44 Elo
- Deni Avdija lower back injury−17 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe fractured left fibula−9 Elo
Rockets
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–30 | 27–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–12 | 22–33 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 35–28 | 27–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 4–6 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Jan 9HOU 105 @ POR 111Picked HOU 69%Miss
- Jan 7HOU 102 @ POR 103Picked HOU 70%Miss
- Nov 14POR 116 @ HOU 140Picked HOU 72%Hit
- Jan 18HOU 125 @ POR 103Picked HOU 80%Hit
- Nov 23POR 104 @ HOU 98Picked HOU 85%Miss
- Nov 22POR 88 @ HOU 116Picked HOU 84%Hit
- Apr 12HOU 116 @ POR 107Picked HOU 65%Hit
- Mar 25POR 92 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 79%Hit