Boston Celtics at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints34
- Jaylen BrownAssists7
- Neemias QuetaRebounds10
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints35
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–104
- Q40.1Celtics offensive team rebound102–104
- Q40.3Payton Pritchard misses 32-foot three point jumper102–104
- Q40.8Ron Harper Jr. enters the game for Neemias Queta102–104
- Q40.8Celtics Full timeout102–104
- Q40.8Chet Holmgren makes free throw 2 of 2102–104
- Q40.8Neemias Queta enters the game for Ron Harper Jr.102–103
- Q40.8Chet Holmgren makes free throw 1 of 2102–103
- Q40.8Sam Hauser shooting foul102–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:32Ajay Mitchell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)BOS 94 – 96 OKC · OKC 51% → 71% +19OKC 51% → 71%+19 pts
- Q41:04Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 14-foot pullup jump shotBOS 98 – 100 OKC · OKC 54% → 79% +25OKC 54% → 79%+25 pts
- Q430.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 15-foot pullup jump shotBOS 100 – 102 OKC · OKC 53% → 86% +33OKC 53% → 86%+33 pts
- Q422.6Jaylen Brown makes 19-foot two point shotBOS 102 – 102 OKC · BOS 11% → 48% +37BOS 11% → 48%+37 pts
- Q40.8Chet Holmgren makes free throw 1 of 2BOS 102 – 103 OKC · OKC 50% → >99% +49OKC 50% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML BOS +275 / OKC -345
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5.5
- OKC 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- OKC: Elo 71.2%, market 74.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -291
- BOS +291 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 104.0 – 112.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1652 | 1719 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −32 | +23 | BOS: Missing Derrick White −30 · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +158 Elo | OKC 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 75.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 75.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 74.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 118.84th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Points allowed | 107.92nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.3 | Margin | +10.91st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 116.44th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 105.71st of 30 |
| 30th of 3096.9 | Pace | 101.019th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 4th of 3022–12 | Road vs home | 27–61st of 30 |
| 30th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301652 | Elo rating | 17191st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−32 Elo- Derrick White right knee contusion−30 Elo
Thunder
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–27 | 31–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–20 | 28–34 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 23–42 | 35–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–3 OKC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.