Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints32
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints35
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists15
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–129
- Q40.1Nuggets offensive team rebound126–129
- Q40.3Aaron Gordon misses heave jump shot126–129
- Q43.3Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ajay Mitchell assists)126–129
- Q48.5Spencer Jones enters the game for Jamal Murray126–126
- Q48.5Bruce Brown enters the game for Nikola Jokic126–126
- Q48.5Isaiah Joe enters the game for Kenrich Williams126–126
- Q48.5Jared McCain enters the game for Luguentz Dort126–126
- Q48.5Thunder Full timeout126–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:56Jared McCain makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DEN 109 – 114 OKC · OKC 66% → 83% +17OKC 66% → 83%+17 pts
- Q431.2Nikola Jokic makes 2-foot driving floating jump shotDEN 122 – 123 OKC · DEN 6% → 30% +24DEN 6% → 30%+24 pts
- Q413.9Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three pointerDEN 122 – 126 OKC · OKC 78% → >99% +22OKC 78% → >99%+22 pts
- Q48.5Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 1DEN 126 – 126 OKC · DEN 17% → 50% +33DEN 17% → 50%+33 pts
- Q43.3Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ajay Mitchell assists)DEN 126 – 129 OKC · OKC 50% → >99% +50OKC 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -3.5
- ML DEN +130 / OKC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5
- OKC 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 68.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -140
- DEN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 117.0 – 120.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1715 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | −24 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +134 Elo | OKC 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 71.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 71.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30120.2 | Points scored | 118.64th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 107.62nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.7 | Margin | +11.01st of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.1 | Offense rating | 116.24th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 105.41st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.8 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3022–12 | Road vs home | 26–61st of 30 |
| 27th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149226th of 30 |
| 8th of 301578 | Elo rating | 17151st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–29 | 31–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–22 | 28–33 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 39–25 | 34–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 6–11 OKC in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.
- Feb 27DEN 121 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 69%Hit
- Feb 1OKC 121 @ DEN 111Picked OKC 67%Hit
- May 18DEN 93 @ OKC 125PlayoffsPicked OKC 73%Hit
- May 15OKC 107 @ DEN 119PlayoffsPicked OKC 64%Miss
- May 13DEN 105 @ OKC 112PlayoffsPicked OKC 79%Hit
- May 11OKC 92 @ DEN 87PlayoffsPicked OKC 70%Hit
- May 9OKC 104 @ DEN 113PlayoffsPicked OKC 69%Miss
- May 7DEN 106 @ OKC 149PlayoffsPicked OKC 78%Hit