New York Knicks at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints34
- Jalen BrunsonAssists15
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds13
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints38
- Nikola JokicAssists5
- Nikola JokicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game142–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter142–103
- Q416.1shot clock turnover142–103
- Q441.0DaRon Holmes II makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)142–103
- Q449.2Jordan Clarkson makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot142–100
- Q458.8Jordan Clarkson defensive rebound140–100
- Q41:02Zeke Nnaji misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot140–100
- Q41:03DaRon Holmes II offensive rebound140–100
- Q41:06David Roddy misses 27-foot three point jumper140–100
- Q41:11Jeremy Sochan makes 1-foot dunk (Tyler Kolek assists)140–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:45Christian Braun makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)NY 11 – 18 DEN · DEN 60% → 66% +6DEN 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q14:43Landry Shamet makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mohamed Diawara assists)NY 14 – 20 DEN · NY 30% → 36% +6NY 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q11:46Landry Shamet makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 23 – 27 DEN · NY 33% → 40% +7NY 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q25:43OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 48 – 40 DEN · NY 62% → 69% +7NY 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q24:35OG Anunoby makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 53 – 44 DEN · NY 65% → 72% +7NY 65% → 72%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -1.5
- ML NY -105 / DEN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -0.5
- DEN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 47.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -104
- NY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 114.0 – 115.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1644 | 1602 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +16 | +41 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +20 Elo | NY 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 54.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 120.41st of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 116.019th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.2 | Margin | +4.48th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 119.41st of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 115.022nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.5 | Pace | 99.723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 17–1214th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149027th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301644 | Elo rating | 16027th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–30 | 35–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–24 | 21–21 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 31–33 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 4–1 DEN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.