Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints27
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Luka DoncicRebounds11
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints28
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–120
- Q40.9Jamal Murray defensive rebound113–120
- Q41.9Luka Doncic misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot113–120
- Q46.6Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2113–120
- Q46.6Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2113–119
- Q46.6Jake LaRavia personal foul113–118
- Q47.9Nuggets Full timeout113–118
- Q47.9Jake LaRavia makes layup113–118
- Q415.3Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2111–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:53Jaxson Hayes makes alley oop layup (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 101 – 104 DEN · LAL 20% → 30% +9LAL 20% → 30%+9 pts
- Q45:36Julian Strawther makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)LAL 101 – 107 DEN · DEN 71% → 84% +13DEN 71% → 84%+13 pts
- Q44:52Marcus Smart makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 104 – 108 DEN · LAL 11% → 23% +12LAL 11% → 23%+12 pts
- Q43:06Rui Hachimura makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 110 – 112 DEN · LAL 19% → 32% +13LAL 19% → 32%+13 pts
- Q41:45Nikola Jokic makes 5-foot two point shotLAL 111 – 114 DEN · DEN 63% → 81% +18DEN 63% → 81%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -3.5
- ML LAL +142 / DEN -170
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- DEN: Elo 64.5%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- DEN -152
- LAL +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 118.5 – 122.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +48 | +42 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +104 Elo | DEN 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 120.51st of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 116.119th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +4.48th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 119.41st of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 115.022nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 99.822nd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 7th of 3019–12 | Road vs home | 16–1214th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 148927th of 30 |
| 12th of 301534 | Elo rating | 15978th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–28 | 34–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–13 | 20–21 |
| Underdog | 8–15 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 32–29 | 38–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 4–9 DEN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.
- Jan 20LAL 115 @ DEN 107Picked LAL 60%Hit
- Mar 19DEN 108 @ LAL 120Picked LAL 65%Hit
- Mar 14LAL 126 @ DEN 131Picked DEN 88%Hit
- Feb 22LAL 123 @ DEN 100Picked DEN 68%Miss
- Nov 23DEN 127 @ LAL 102Picked LAL 60%Miss
- Apr 29LAL 106 @ DEN 108PlayoffsPicked DEN 62%Hit
- Apr 27DEN 108 @ LAL 119PlayoffsPicked DEN 53%Miss
- Apr 25DEN 112 @ LAL 105PlayoffsPicked LAL 51%Miss