Golden State Warriors at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Brandin PodziemskiPoints25
- Gui SantosAssists7
- Gui SantosRebounds7
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints30
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–110
- Q41.0Gui Santos bad pass
turnover (Landry Shamet steals)107–110
- Q46.2LJ Cryer enters the game for Omer Yurtseven107–110
- Q46.2Will Richard enters the game for Gary Payton II107–110
- Q46.2Warriors Full timeout107–110
- Q46.2OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2107–110
- Q46.2Quinten Post enters the game for Nate Williams107–109
- Q46.2Omer Yurtseven enters the game for Malevy Leons107–109
- Q46.2Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns107–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:24Landry Shamet makes 25-foot three pointerGS 99 – 104 NY · NY 75% → 90% +14NY 75% → 90%+14 pts
- Q42:04Gui Santos makes driving layupGS 103 – 104 NY · GS 16% → 31% +15GS 16% → 31%+15 pts
- Q41:04Jalen Brunson makes 12-foot step back jumpshotGS 103 – 106 NY · NY 70% → 89% +19NY 70% → 89%+19 pts
- Q455.2Brandin Podziemski makes driving layupGS 105 – 106 NY · GS 10% → 30% +20GS 10% → 30%+20 pts
- Q416.2Landry Shamet makes free throw 1 of 2GS 105 – 107 NY · NY 78% → 93% +15NY 78% → 93%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -14.5
- ML GS +625 / NY -950
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -11
- NY 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- NY: Elo 85.6%, market 86.8%
- Fair odds
- NY -656
- GS +656 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 102.0 – 116.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1647 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −71 | +19 | GS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −35, De'Anthony Melton −18 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | GS crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +310 Elo | NY 85.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 84.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 84.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 86.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 117.110th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 110.75th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +6.45th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 117.03rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 110.66th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.3 | Pace | 99.523rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 20th of 3013–19 | Road vs home | 23–95th of 30 |
| 6th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Elo rating | 16474th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−71 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis injury/illness−35 Elo
- De'Anthony Melton left knee injury management−18 Elo
Knicks
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–37 | 36–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–24 | 29–27 |
| Underdog | 10–13 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 40–26 | 34–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 4–1 NY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.