New York Knicks at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints35
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Josh HartRebounds13
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints29
- Kawhi LeonardAssists8
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–126
- Q46.0Darius Garland makes free throw 2 of 2118–126
- Q46.0Jordan Miller enters the game for Kawhi Leonard118–125
- Q46.0Darius Garland makes free throw 1 of 2118–125
- Q46.0Ariel Hukporti enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns118–124
- Q46.0Karl-Anthony Towns personal take foul118–124
- Q47.5Karl-Anthony Towns makes tip shot118–124
- Q47.5Karl-Anthony Towns offensive rebound116–124
- Q48.3Jalen Brunson misses driving floating jump shot116–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:31Karl-Anthony Towns makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 64 – 70 LAC · NY 25% → 34% +8NY 25% → 34%+8 pts
- Q39.3Mohamed Diawara makes 23-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)NY 81 – 88 LAC · NY 16% → 25% +9NY 16% → 25%+9 pts
- Q49:50Mikal Bridges makes 27-foot running jump shot (Jose Alvarado assists)NY 86 – 92 LAC · NY 16% → 26% +10NY 16% → 26%+10 pts
- Q43:56OG Anunoby makes 22-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 104 – 109 LAC · NY 8% → 19% +11NY 8% → 19%+11 pts
- Q43:39Brook Lopez makes 26-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)NY 104 – 112 LAC · LAC 82% → 93% +11LAC 82% → 93%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NY -1.5
- ML NY -130 / LAC +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -1.5
- NY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- NY: Elo 56.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NY -119
- LAC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 111.0 – 109.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1651 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | −7 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +48 Elo | NY 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 53.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 112.624th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 112.29th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.4 | Margin | +0.318th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 114.211th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 113.920th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.5 | Pace | 98.128th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 12th of 3017–15 | Road vs home | 16–1315th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150215th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301651 | Elo rating | 15877th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–31 | 34–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 28–25 | 14–17 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–34 | 34–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 2–3 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.