New York Knicks at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints25
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds16
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints35
- Austin ReavesAssists5
- Luka DoncicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–110
- Q41.4shot clock turnover97–110
- Q424.4Jalen Brunson lost ball turnover (Luke Kennard steals)97–110
- Q429.4Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound97–110
- Q432.9Austin Reaves misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot97–110
- Q451.0Austin Reaves defensive rebound97–110
- Q453.9Mikal Bridges misses 26-foot three point jumper97–110
- Q455.3OG Anunoby offensive rebound97–110
- Q458.1OG Anunoby misses two point shot97–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:49OG Anunoby makes 26-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)NY 45 – 50 LAL · NY 38% → 46% +8NY 38% → 46%+8 pts
- Q311:10Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerNY 54 – 56 LAL · NY 45% → 54% +9NY 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q38:55Luka Doncic makes 27-foot fade away jump shotNY 56 – 65 LAL · LAL 60% → 68% +9LAL 60% → 68%+9 pts
- Q37:55Landry Shamet makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 59 – 68 LAL · NY 23% → 31% +8NY 23% → 31%+8 pts
- Q36:08Rui Hachimura makes 29-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)NY 61 – 73 LAL · LAL 71% → 79% +8LAL 71% → 79%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -5.5
- ML NY -198 / LAL +164
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4.5
- NY 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- NY: Elo 66.6%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- NY -175
- LAL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 116.0 – 110.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1669 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −1 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +120 Elo | NY 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 116.012th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 115.315th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.7 | Margin | +0.716th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 115.68th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 115.021st of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.6 | Pace | 100.320th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 11th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 19–1212th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301669 | Elo rating | 153313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–30 | 34–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–24 | 26–13 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 8–16 |
| Overs–unders | 32–33 | 33–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 2–3 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.