Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints26
- Andrew NembhardAssists8
- Jarace WalkerRebounds9
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints44
- Luka DoncicAssists5
- Luka DoncicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–128
- Q417.9Jarace Walker makes 1-foot running dunk117–128
- Q420.3Dalton Knecht lost ball turnover (Jarace Walker steals)115–128
- Q436.1Chris Manon defensive rebound115–128
- Q438.7Ben Sheppard misses free throw 1 of 1115–128
- Q438.7Drew Timme shooting foul115–128
- Q438.7Ben Sheppard makes driving layup (Micah Potter assists)115–128
- Q441.2Micah Potter offensive rebound113–128
- Q445.4Jay Huff misses 27-foot running jump shot113–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:19Rui Hachimura makes 22-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)IND 3 – 3 LAL · LAL 72% → 77% +5LAL 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q17:48Luka Doncic makes 29-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)IND 13 – 11 LAL · LAL 67% → 73% +6LAL 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q12:34Luka Doncic makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotIND 21 – 24 LAL · LAL 75% → 80% +5LAL 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q25:41Luka Doncic makes 28-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)IND 45 – 51 LAL · LAL 78% → 84% +5LAL 78% → 84%+5 pts
- Q23:39Luke Kennard makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaxson Hayes assists)IND 49 – 54 LAL · LAL 76% → 82% +6LAL 76% → 82%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -9.5
- ML IND +320 / LAL -410
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -7
- LAL 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- LAL: Elo 76.0%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- LAL -338
- IND +338 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 113.0 – 122.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1359 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −34 | +1 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +201 Elo | LAL 76.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 79.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 78.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 77.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 115.813th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 115.315th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.4 | Margin | +0.515th of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 115.59th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 115.021st of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.8 | Pace | 100.220th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–25 | Road vs home | 18–1212th of 30 |
| 13th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301359 | Elo rating | 152914th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–34 | 33–29 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 25–13 |
| Underdog | 25–27 | 8–16 |
| Overs–unders | 28–34 | 32–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–4 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.