Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints42
- Ayo DosunmuAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds9
Warriors- Brandin PodziemskiPoints25
- Gui SantosAssists8
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–117
- Q40.7Warriors offensive team rebound127–117
- Q40.7Kyle Anderson blocks Brandin Podziemski 's 44-foot heave jump shot127–117
- Q45.0Jaden McDaniels out of bounds lost ball turnover127–117
- Q428.4LJ Cryer makes driving layup127–117
- Q434.4Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound127–115
- Q437.5LJ Cryer misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot127–115
- Q447.9Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2127–115
- Q447.9Kyle Anderson enters the game for Rudy Gobert126–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:57Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 18 – 18 GS · MIN 57% → 63% +7MIN 57% → 63%+7 pts
- Q14:20Brandin Podziemski makes 25-foot running jump shot (Pat Spencer assists)MIN 18 – 21 GS · GS 37% → 43% +7GS 37% → 43%+7 pts
- Q14:07Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 21 – 21 GS · MIN 57% → 63% +7MIN 57% → 63%+7 pts
- Q210:48De'Anthony Melton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Seth Curry assists)MIN 34 – 33 GS · GS 29% → 35% +7GS 29% → 35%+7 pts
- Q210:20Bones Hyland makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 37 – 33 GS · MIN 65% → 71% +7MIN 65% → 71%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -4.5
- ML MIN -205 / GS +170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- MIN 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −20.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 44.2%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -181
- GS +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 114.5 – 110.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | −8 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +40 Elo | GS 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 115.218th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 114.212th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +1.016th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 112.916th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 112.013th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 101.318th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 19–1415th of 30 |
| 27th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 30 |
| 16th of 301521 | Elo rating | 151017th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–39 | 29–36 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 19–24 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–35 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 10–5 GS in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.
- Jan 26GS 83 @ MIN 108Picked MIN 72%Hit
- Jan 25GS 111 @ MIN 85Picked MIN 64%Miss
- Dec 12MIN 127 @ GS 120Picked GS 63%Miss
- May 14GS 110 @ MIN 121PlayoffsPicked MIN 77%Hit
- May 12MIN 117 @ GS 110PlayoffsPicked MIN 64%Hit
- May 10MIN 102 @ GS 97PlayoffsPicked MIN 66%Hit
- May 8GS 93 @ MIN 117PlayoffsPicked MIN 81%Hit
- May 6GS 99 @ MIN 88PlayoffsPicked MIN 68%Miss