Minnesota Timberwolves at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints36
- Anthony EdwardsAssists5
- Julius RandleRebounds6
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints45
- Jordan MillerAssists7
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–153
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–153
- Q411.2Julian Phillips makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)128–153
- Q420.5Julian Phillips defensive rebound125–153
- Q423.1Sean Pedulla misses 24-foot three point jumper125–153
- Q426.1Cam Christie offensive rebound125–153
- Q428.9Jordan Miller misses 22-foot three point jumper125–153
- Q451.2Jaylen Clark makes free throw 1 of 1125–153
- Q451.2Norchad Omier shooting foul124–153
- Q451.2Jaylen Clark makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Joe Ingles assists)124–153
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:51Darius Garland makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)MIN 43 – 48 LAC · LAC 56% → 63% +7LAC 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q25:28Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 50 – 53 LAC · MIN 34% → 41% +8MIN 34% → 41%+8 pts
- Q25:11Kris Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)MIN 50 – 56 LAC · LAC 59% → 66% +8LAC 59% → 66%+8 pts
- Q23:26Jaden McDaniels makes 27-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)MIN 57 – 60 LAC · MIN 33% → 41% +8MIN 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q227.7Anthony Edwards makes running layupMIN 64 – 70 LAC · MIN 23% → 32% +10MIN 23% → 32%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -1.5
- ML MIN -105 / LAC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5.5
- LAC 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +19.2 pts
- LAC: Elo 70.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 112.5 – 114.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −4 | +3 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +150 Elo | LAC 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 58.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 112.824th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 112.310th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.9 | Margin | +0.518th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 114.312th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 113.919th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 98.128th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 8th of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 17–1315th of 30 |
| 28th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 30 |
| 14th of 301531 | Elo rating | 15987th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–38 | 35–29 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 14–17 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–35 | 35–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–2 LAC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Feb 26MIN 94 @ LAC 88Picked MIN 74%Hit
- Feb 8LAC 115 @ MIN 96Picked MIN 75%Miss
- Dec 6LAC 106 @ MIN 109Picked MIN 76%Hit
- Jan 6LAC 106 @ MIN 108Picked MIN 55%Hit
- Dec 4MIN 108 @ LAC 80Picked MIN 63%Hit
- Nov 29LAC 92 @ MIN 93Picked MIN 69%Hit
- Mar 12MIN 118 @ LAC 100Picked LAC 59%Miss
- Mar 3LAC 89 @ MIN 88Picked MIN 60%Miss