Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints14
- Anthony EdwardsAssists4
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints31
- Luka DoncicAssists11
- Deandre AytonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–120
- Q41.1shot clock turnover106–120
- Q425.9Jaylen Clark makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)106–120
- Q436.6Drew Timme makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bronny James assists)103–120
- Q452.0Julian Phillips makes 8-foot two point shot103–117
- Q459.3Julian Phillips defensive rebound101–117
- Q41:02Kobe Bufkin misses 22-foot three point jumper101–117
- Q41:15Adou Thiero defensive rebound101–117
- Q41:18Terrence Shannon Jr. misses 18-foot step back jumpshot101–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:23Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 33 – 30 LAL · MIN 55% → 63% +8MIN 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q26:06Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)MIN 33 – 33 LAL · LAL 37% → 45% +8LAL 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q21:39Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Austin Reaves assists)MIN 43 – 42 LAL · LAL 34% → 43% +8LAL 34% → 43%+8 pts
- Q25.0Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)MIN 45 – 45 LAL · LAL 37% → 45% +9LAL 37% → 45%+9 pts
- Q39:13Luka Doncic makes 22-foot three point shot (Jake LaRavia assists)MIN 48 – 54 LAL · LAL 55% → 64% +9LAL 55% → 64%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML MIN -142 / LAL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2
- MIN 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 42.0%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -129
- LAL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 116.0 – 113.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | +4 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Missing Jaxson Hayes −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +56 Elo | LAL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 115.912th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 115.015th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.2 | Margin | +0.816th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 115.68th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 114.721st of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.5 | Pace | 100.221st of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 7th of 3018–12 | Road vs home | 20–1212th of 30 |
| 28th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 14th of 301541 | Elo rating | 155111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+4 Elo- Jaxson Hayes back−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–37 | 35–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–32 | 26–13 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 9–16 |
| Overs–unders | 30–34 | 33–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 9–6 LAL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.
- Oct 29LAL 116 @ MIN 115Picked MIN 72%Miss
- Oct 24MIN 110 @ LAL 128Picked MIN 53%Miss
- Apr 30MIN 103 @ LAL 96PlayoffsPicked LAL 69%Miss
- Apr 27LAL 113 @ MIN 116PlayoffsPicked MIN 57%Hit
- Apr 25LAL 104 @ MIN 116PlayoffsPicked MIN 61%Hit
- Apr 22MIN 85 @ LAL 94PlayoffsPicked LAL 69%Hit
- Apr 19MIN 117 @ LAL 95PlayoffsPicked LAL 64%Miss
- Feb 27MIN 102 @ LAL 111Picked LAL 67%Hit