New York Knicks at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints28
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds13
Jazz- Brice SensabaughPoints29
- Brice SensabaughAssists5
- Andersson GarciaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–117
- Q420.0Kevin McCullar Jr. out of bounds bad pass turnover134–117
- Q424.5Brice Sensabaugh lost ball turnover (Jeremy Sochan steals)134–117
- Q435.3Ace Bailey defensive rebound134–117
- Q436.9Mohamed Diawara misses running layup134–117
- Q442.7Tyler Kolek defensive rebound134–117
- Q445.6Ace Bailey misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot134–117
- Q454.5Andersson Garcia defensive rebound134–117
- Q456.9Pacome Dadiet misses 30-foot three point jumper134–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:26Ace Bailey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brice Sensabaugh assists)NY 68 – 79 UTAH · UTAH 46% → 55% +10UTAH 46% → 55%+10 pts
- Q37:04Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)NY 77 – 83 UTAH · NY 49% → 59% +10NY 49% → 59%+10 pts
- Q35:32Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)NY 79 – 88 UTAH · UTAH 43% → 54% +10UTAH 43% → 54%+10 pts
- Q32:50Mohamed Diawara makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)NY 86 – 90 UTAH · NY 49% → 60% +11NY 49% → 60%+11 pts
- Q31:53OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 89 – 92 UTAH · NY 51% → 63% +11NY 51% → 63%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -13.5
- ML NY -1000 / UTAH +650
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -10
- NY 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- NY: Elo 83.7%, market 87.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -682
- UTAH +682 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 122.5 – 109.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1640 | 1331 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | −9 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +285 Elo | NY 83.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 83.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 83.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 87.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 117.48th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.9 | Points allowed | 124.930th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.2 | Margin | −7.526th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 112.220th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 119.430th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.6 | Pace | 103.64th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 15th of 3017–16 | Road vs home | 12–2126th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15085th of 30 |
| 4th of 301640 | Elo rating | 133128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–32 | 35–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–26 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 30–28 |
| Overs–unders | 33–34 | 37–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 3–2 UTAH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.