New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints29
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds22
Pacers- Jarace WalkerPoints18
- Andrew NembhardAssists7
- Jarace WalkerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–92
- Q410.5shot clock turnover101–92
- Q434.8Jarace Walker makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot101–92
- Q445.6Mikal Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2101–90
- Q445.6Pacers Full timeout100–90
- Q445.6Jordan Clarkson enters the game for Mitchell Robinson100–90
- Q445.6Kobe Brown enters the game for Aaron Nesmith100–90
- Q445.6Micah Potter enters the game for Andrew Nembhard100–90
- Q445.6Mikal Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2100–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:42Jarace Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)NY 71 – 69 IND · IND 16% → 24% +8IND 16% → 24%+8 pts
- Q37.9Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)NY 73 – 74 IND · IND 24% → 35% +11IND 24% → 35%+11 pts
- Q30.0Jordan Clarkson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 76 – 74 IND · NY 65% → 76% +11NY 65% → 76%+11 pts
- Q43:54Jarace Walker makes 23-foot running jump shot (Aaron Nesmith assists)NY 88 – 86 IND · IND 12% → 26% +14IND 12% → 26%+14 pts
- Q41:57Mikal Bridges makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 95 – 88 IND · NY 89% → 98% +9NY 89% → 98%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- NY -12.5
- ML NY -675 / IND +490
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -9.5
- NY 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- NY: Elo 82.8%, market 83.7%
- Fair odds
- NY -514
- IND +514 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 120.5 – 108.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1644 | 1337 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −39 | −24 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | NY crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +273 Elo | NY 82.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 81.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 81.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 83.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 111.327th of 30 |
| 5th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 120.025th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.3 | Margin | −8.727th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 107.830th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 116.125th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.5 | Pace | 102.79th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 14th of 3018–16 | Road vs home | 10–2329th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301644 | Elo rating | 133727th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–32 | 28–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 0–10 |
| Favorite | 29–26 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 25–31 |
| Overs–unders | 34–34 | 31–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 9–12 IND in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.
- Feb 10IND 137 @ NY 134Picked NY 81%Miss
- Dec 18NY 114 @ IND 113Picked NY 59%Hit
- May 31NY 108 @ IND 125PlayoffsPicked IND 61%Hit
- May 29IND 94 @ NY 111PlayoffsPicked NY 63%Hit
- May 27NY 121 @ IND 130PlayoffsPicked IND 58%Hit
- May 25NY 106 @ IND 100PlayoffsPicked IND 52%Miss
- May 23IND 114 @ NY 109PlayoffsPicked NY 68%Miss
- May 21IND 138 @ NY 135PlayoffsPicked NY 62%Miss