Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints43
- Devin BookerAssists5
- Devin BookerRebounds7
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints23
- Kam JonesAssists6
- Jalen SlawsonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–108
- Q423.0shot clock turnover123–108
- Q447.1Jalen Slawson bad pass
turnover (Amir Coffey steals)123–108
- Q454.9Ryan Dunn makes tip in dunk123–108
- Q454.9Ryan Dunn offensive rebound121–108
- Q456.9Jamaree Bouyea misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot121–108
- Q41:09Ryan Dunn enters the game for Oso Ighodaro121–108
- Q41:09Isaiah Livers enters the game for Collin Gillespie121–108
- Q41:09Jamaree Bouyea enters the game for Jalen Green121–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:59Ben Sheppard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Taelon Peter assists)PHX 22 – 27 IND · IND 29% → 35% +6IND 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q32:48Devin Booker makes 27-foot three pointerPHX 86 – 79 IND · PHX 78% → 86% +7PHX 78% → 86%+7 pts
- Q32:35Taelon Peter makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Micah Potter assists)PHX 86 – 82 IND · IND 14% → 22% +7IND 14% → 22%+7 pts
- Q32:12Ben Sheppard makes running layup (Jalen Slawson assists)PHX 86 – 84 IND · IND 22% → 28% +6IND 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q31:34Devin Booker makes 22-foot three point jumper (Rasheer Fleming assists)PHX 92 – 84 IND · PHX 81% → 88% +7PHX 81% → 88%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -9.5
- ML PHX -410 / IND +320
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -8.5
- PHX 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- PHX: Elo 80.0%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- PHX -338
- IND +338 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 116.0 – 106.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1341 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | −52 | PHX: Usual rotation · IND: Missing T.J. McConnell −17, Obi Toppin −7, Aaron Nesmith −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −36 | PHX crossed 1 time zone and IND crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +241 Elo | PHX 80.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 78.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 78.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 77.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 111.427th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 119.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −8.627th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 107.730th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 116.024th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.1 | Pace | 102.89th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 13th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 10–2229th of 30 |
| 5th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 13th of 301543 | Elo rating | 134127th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−52 Elo- T.J. McConnell sore right hamstring−17 Elo
- Obi Toppin right foot−7 Elo
- Aaron Nesmith right ankle injury−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–26 | 28–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 0–10 |
| Favorite | 20–12 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 25–30 |
| Overs–unders | 27–38 | 30–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–3 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.