Indiana Pacers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints22
- Andrew NembhardAssists9
- Pascal SiakamRebounds6
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints28
- Deni AvdijaAssists8
- Donovan ClinganRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–131
- Q40.0Pacers offensive team rebound111–131
- Q40.0Kam Jones misses heave jump shot111–131
- Q41.2shot clock turnover111–131
- Q425.3Kobe Brown makes driving layup (Micah Potter assists)111–131
- Q437.9Yang Hansen makes free throw 1 of 1109–131
- Q437.9Kam Jones shooting foul109–130
- Q437.9Yang Hansen makes 1-foot dunk (Blake Wesley assists)109–130
- Q453.5Vit Krejci defensive rebound109–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:22Jrue Holiday makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Toumani Camara assists)IND 18 – 17 POR · POR 68% → 74% +6POR 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q14:51Andrew Nembhard makes 29-foot three point jumper (Kobe Brown assists)IND 21 – 17 POR · IND 26% → 32% +6IND 26% → 32%+6 pts
- Q11:28Kobe Brown makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 28 – 24 POR · IND 27% → 34% +6IND 27% → 34%+6 pts
- Q11:03Scoot Henderson makes 28-foot three pointerIND 28 – 27 POR · POR 66% → 72% +6POR 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q26:51Jarace Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 41 – 42 POR · IND 20% → 25% +6IND 20% → 25%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- POR -9.5
- ML IND +320 / POR -410
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -6
- POR 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- POR: Elo 71.7%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- POR -338
- IND +338 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 114.5 – 124.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1354 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | +11 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −38, Shaedon Sharpe −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +162 Elo | POR 71.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 76.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 76.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 77.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 115.117th of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 118.124th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.4 | Margin | −3.021st of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 111.024th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 113.920th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.8 | Pace | 103.37th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–26 | Road vs home | 16–1516th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15181st of 30 |
| 26th of 301354 | Elo rating | 144520th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+11 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−38 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe left leg injury−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–35 | 33–31 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 13–12 |
| Underdog | 25–28 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders | 29–34 | 35–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–3 POR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.