Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Aaron NesmithPoints29
- Kam JonesAssists9
- Jarace WalkerRebounds9
Kings- Devin CarterPoints24
- Russell WestbrookAssists9
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–114
- Q41.8Nique Clifford defensive rebound109–114
- Q44.8Kam Jones misses 29-foot three point jumper109–114
- Q46.9Jay Huff enters the game for Quenton Jackson109–114
- Q46.9Pacers Full timeout109–114
- Q46.9Nique Clifford makes free throw 2 of 2109–114
- Q46.9Nique Clifford makes free throw 1 of 2109–113
- Q46.9Ben Sheppard personal take foul109–112
- Q48.6Quenton Jackson enters the game for Jay Huff109–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:16Devin Carter makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 98 – 99 SAC · SAC 39% → 60% +21SAC 39% → 60%+21 pts
- Q44:01Aaron Nesmith makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kam Jones assists)IND 101 – 99 SAC · IND 40% → 61% +21IND 40% → 61%+21 pts
- Q43:09Devin Carter makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Nique Clifford assists)IND 101 – 104 SAC · SAC 52% → 75% +22SAC 52% → 75%+22 pts
- Q42:56Kam Jones makes 7-foot two point shotIND 103 – 104 SAC · IND 24% → 39% +15IND 24% → 39%+15 pts
- Q42:07Devin Carter makes 26-foot three pointerIND 103 – 107 SAC · SAC 62% → 85% +23SAC 62% → 85%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -3.5
- ML IND +136 / SAC -162
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -3
- SAC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- SAC: Elo 62.6%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- SAC -146
- IND +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 116.5 – 120.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1346 | 1364 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −86 | −50 | IND: Missing Pascal Siakam −45, T.J. McConnell −19, Andrew Nembhard −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SAC: Missing Dylan Cardwell −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +89 Elo | SAC 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 60.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 110.629th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 121.128th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.6 | Margin | −10.529th of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 108.428th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 118.728th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.8 | Pace | 101.515th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 29th of 305–27 | Road vs home | 10–2228th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15142nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301346 | Elo rating | 136426th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−86 Elo- Pascal Siakam right knee sprain−45 Elo
- T.J. McConnell right hamstring−19 Elo
- Andrew Nembhard lower back soreness−5 Elo
Kings
−50 Elo- Dylan Cardwell left ankle sprain−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–36 | 25–40 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 25–29 | 23–36 |
| Overs–unders | 30–34 | 32–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 4–1 SAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.