Golden State Warriors at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Kristaps PorzingisPoints30
- Draymond GreenAssists7
- Draymond GreenRebounds8
Wizards- Bilal CoulibalyPoints21
- Will RileyAssists5
- Bilal CoulibalyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–117
- Q46.1Anthony Gill defensive rebound125–117
- Q412.7Brandin Podziemski misses 23-foot three point jumper125–117
- Q437.4Bilal Coulibaly bad pass
turnover (Gui Santos steals)125–117
- Q443.3Bilal Coulibaly defensive rebound125–117
- Q445.1De'Anthony Melton misses driving floating jump shot125–117
- Q41:05Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 2 of 2125–117
- Q41:05Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 2125–116
- Q41:05Gui Santos shooting foul125–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:51Trae Young makes 28-foot running pullup jump shotGS 54 – 52 WSH · WSH 21% → 28% +7WSH 21% → 28%+7 pts
- Q49:06Tristan Vukcevic makes 29-foot running jump shot (Will Riley assists)GS 105 – 98 WSH · WSH 7% → 14% +6WSH 7% → 14%+6 pts
- Q47:30Bilal Coulibaly makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julian Reese assists)GS 109 – 103 WSH · WSH 8% → 15% +7WSH 8% → 15%+7 pts
- Q44:15Kristaps Porzingis makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (De'Anthony Melton assists)GS 117 – 110 WSH · GS 85% → 92% +7GS 85% → 92%+7 pts
- Q43:01Will Riley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)GS 119 – 113 WSH · WSH 2% → 8% +6WSH 2% → 8%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- GS -7.5
- ML GS -310 / WSH +250
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3.5
- GS 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- GS: Elo 63.5%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- GS -265
- WSH +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 121.0 – 113.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1268 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −37 | +20 | GS: Missing Al Horford −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +96 Elo | GS 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 68.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 112.725th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 123.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −11.030th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 108.628th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 119.229th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.2 | Pace | 103.38th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 20th of 3013–20 | Road vs home | 11–2228th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Elo rating | 126830th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−37 Elo- Al Horford not with team−5 Elo
Wizards
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–37 | 28–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–24 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 11–13 | 26–35 |
| Overs–unders | 40–27 | 36–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 4–0 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.