Phoenix Suns at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints40
- Oso IghodaroAssists8
- Jalen GreenRebounds7
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints41
- Jaylen BrownAssists6
- Jaylen BrownRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–120
- Q43.2Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2112–120
- Q43.2Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Jaylen Brown112–119
- Q43.2Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2112–119
- Q43.2Grayson Allen personal take foul112–118
- Q44.6Jayson Tatum defensive rebound112–118
- Q46.5Devin Booker misses 26-foot three point jumper112–118
- Q48.7Collin Gillespie enters the game for Khaman Maluach112–118
- Q48.7Jalen Green enters the game for Jordan Goodwin112–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:54Haywood Highsmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)PHX 101 – 102 BOS · PHX 21% → 34% +14PHX 21% → 34%+14 pts
- Q45:13Devin Booker makes driving layup (Jordan Goodwin assists)PHX 107 – 104 BOS · PHX 47% → 60% +13PHX 47% → 60%+13 pts
- Q44:46Jordan Goodwin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 110 – 106 BOS · PHX 48% → 67% +19PHX 48% → 67%+19 pts
- Q43:05Jayson Tatum makes running layup (Jaylen Brown assists)PHX 111 – 110 BOS · BOS 33% → 49% +16BOS 33% → 49%+16 pts
- Q42:30Jaylen Brown makes two point shotPHX 111 – 112 BOS · BOS 47% → 65% +18BOS 47% → 65%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -8.5
- ML PHX +295 / BOS -375
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 73.3%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -312
- PHX +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 104.0 – 112.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1651 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | +45 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +175 Elo | BOS 73.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 72.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 114.220th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 107.01st of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +7.23rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 117.62nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 110.15th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.1 | Pace | 96.830th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 13th of 3017–15 | Road vs home | 22–106th of 30 |
| 6th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 148430th of 30 |
| 14th of 301540 | Elo rating | 16512nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–27 | 39–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–12 | 27–21 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 29–38 | 23–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 0–5 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.