Phoenix Suns at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Jalen GreenPoints34
- Grayson AllenAssists6
- Royce O'NealeRebounds6
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints36
- Jamal SheadAssists8
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–122
- Q40.4Suns offensive team rebound115–122
- Q40.4Jalen Green misses 36-foot turnaround jump shot115–122
- Q41.0Immanuel Quickley makes running dunk115–122
- Q43.4Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound115–120
- Q46.2Royce O'Neale misses 24-foot three point jumper115–120
- Q412.4Scottie Barnes out of bounds lost ball turnover115–120
- Q417.6Devin Booker makes 1-foot two point shot115–120
- Q422.8Ja'Kobe Walter makes free throw 2 of 2113–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:35RJ Barrett makes 22-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)PHX 107 – 108 TOR · TOR 39% → 61% +23TOR 39% → 61%+23 pts
- Q42:36Royce O'Neale makes 27-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 110 – 108 TOR · PHX 38% → 64% +26PHX 38% → 64%+26 pts
- Q42:11Brandon Ingram makes driving layupPHX 110 – 110 TOR · TOR 34% → 53% +19TOR 34% → 53%+19 pts
- Q41:35RJ Barrett makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Ja'Kobe Walter assists)PHX 110 – 112 TOR · TOR 53% → 74% +21TOR 53% → 74%+21 pts
- Q458.7Brandon Ingram makes 12-foot two point shotPHX 110 – 114 TOR · TOR 78% → 93% +15TOR 78% → 93%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -5.5
- ML PHX +170 / TOR -205
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.9%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- TOR -181
- PHX +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 108.0 – 113.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +19 | +34 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +1 Elo | PHX 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 113.422nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 111.97th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +1.513th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 112.419th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 110.98th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.1 | Pace | 100.220th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 11th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 17–1617th of 30 |
| 5th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 13th of 301548 | Elo rating | 146719th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–26 | 32–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–12 | 17–21 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–38 | 24–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.